Trump's second term could realign US diplomacy towards authoritarian leaders

BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) Hungary's fiery right-wing leader says Donald Trump's victory will help him in his own battle against immigration and multiculturalism and restore traditional family values.

In Argentina, a president who once hugged Trump at a policy conference in Maryland calls his critics rats and parasites, railing against what he calls a corrupt elite and calling climate change a socialist lie.

Trump's second term could shift U.S. diplomacy away from traditional international alliances and more toward populist and authoritarian politicians, these leaders and outside observers say.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbn

Two days before Tuesday's election, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbn made a bold prediction.

Donald Trump will be president again, which means that by the end of the year, pro-peace political forces will be in the majority in the West, Orbn told state radio.

Orbn has been accused by the European Union of burying Hungarian democracy by dominating the media and building a network of loyal oligarchs. He worried foreign leaders by approaching Russian President Vladimir Putin.

What Orbn calls illiberal democracy has stigmatized civil society organizations and repressed LGBTQ+ rights. He favors maintaining power, even if it means contravening the traditional interests of Hungarian allies.

Russian President Vladimir Putin

FILE – In this June 28, 2019, file photo, President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan . (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, file)

Trump has avoided publicly criticizing Putin and has always spoken warmly of him.

There is clearly some kind of authoritarian chemistry between them, said Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

That chemistry fits with Trump's admiration for other authoritarian leaders, some of whom were elected by formerly democratic systems, Gould-Davies said, citing Hungary under Orbn as an example.

Trump said he would end Russia's war in Ukraine within 24 hours, a claim welcomed by the Kremlin, which currently holds an advantage on the battlefield as well as about 20 percent of Ukraine's territory.

Moscow may hope that Trump will sow dysfunction within NATO given his demands that other alliance members meet agreed military spending levels and his warnings that Russia could do whatever it wants to those who fail.

Gould-Davies observed before the election that the Kremlin would welcome Trump's victory because of its apparent desire to see the war in Ukraine end on terms favorable to Russia. Putin and other authoritarian leaders will be emboldened by Trump's re-election, which will mean that US foreign policy will place much less emphasis on the importance and value of human rights, Gould-Davies said.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

WIRE E- Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands during their meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS summit at the Kazan Kremlin, in Kazan, Russia, October 22, 2024. ( AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, Pool, File)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is one of his country's beloved and polarizing political leaders. Under Modi, Hindu nationalism, once a fringe ideology in India, has gone mainstream, and no one has done more to advance that cause than the 74-year-old leader.

Some critics say Modi's policies have divided India, particularly along religious lines. He has been accused of using hate speech against the country's minority Muslim community, particularly during the final phase of this year's election campaign, when he intensified his rhetoric against them.

To his supporters, Modi is a political outsider who shattered the country's dynastic political history. His rise has been spurred in part by promises of reform of the Indian economy, but also by Hindu politics which have largely resonated in a country where 80% of the population is Hindu.

To his critics, Modi has strained democracy and threatened India's secular fabric, while his attacks on the media and free speech have increased over more than a decade of his rule.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

FILE – Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shake hands as they pose for photos during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, in Kazakhstan, July 3, 2024. (Sergueï Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin swimming pool photo via AP, file)

Like Trump, Erdogan projects an image of strength that prioritizes national interests and relies on populist messages that present him as a champion of ordinary people against elites.

The Biden administration has kept Erdogan's government at arm's length, but Trump and Erdogan have cultivated a cordial relationship. This is despite a series of differences between their countries, such as when the Trump administration removed Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019 following Ankara's purchase of a Russian-made missile defense system .

President Javier Milei of Argentina

FILE – Argentine President Javier Milei speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC 2024, at National Harbor in Oxon Hill, Maryland, February 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana, File)

The Argentine president has a brash style like Trump, berates multilateral institutions like the United Nations and has taken a dismissive diplomatic approach, snubbing meetings with the leaders of traditional allies like Brazil and Spain.

For many observers, the most worrying parallel concerns Mileis' claims that last year's presidential election in Argentina was rigged against him. That, along with his efforts to downplay the atrocities of Argentina's bloody military dictatorship from 1976 to 1983, raised concerns about his impact on democracy.

Milei congratulated Trump on his election victory on Wednesday by posting an image on Instagram of the two men kissing in front of their countries' flags.

You know that you can count on Argentina to accomplish your task, we can read in the caption. Now make America great again.

Analysts say with his cash-strapped government badly in need of U.S. support, the International Monetary Fund's largest shareholder is betting on a Trump victory. The Mileis administration is pinning its hopes on the idea that Trump could pressure the IMF to lend more money to Argentina, its largest debtor.

The fund is considering whether to lend more money to Argentina, which Mileis' libertarian government needs to fully re-enter the global market and exit foreign exchange controls. During Trump's first term, the IMF granted Argentina then led by conservative President Mauricio Macri a controversial $57 billion bailout.

Mariano Machado, senior analyst for the Americas at Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk intelligence firm, said that while U.S. institutions and the separation of powers are designed to prevent autocratic rule, Argentina is now returning to a phase where the very parameters of its institutions are modified. be under pressure.

Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia

FILE – Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, right, speaks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban during a roundtable discussion at an EU summit in Brussels, February 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert, File)

Although he is on the left, Fico used similar rhetoric to Trump.

Fico even compared the July assassination attempt on Trump to his own injury in a May shooting.

This is a carbon copy scenario, Fico said. Donald Trump's political opponents try to imprison him, and when they fail, they infuriate public opinion so much that a loser picks up a gun.

Like Trump, Fico displays his contempt for the mainstream media and has declared war on illegal immigration. Fico faced criminal charges for organized crime, which he denounced as politically motivated. The case was finally dismissed.

The Slovak leader condemned the Western approach to the war in Ukraine and canceled arms deliveries to kyiv.

Fico, like Orbn, is known for his pro-Russian views, opposes EU sanctions against Moscow and has said he would block Ukraine from joining NATO.

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Susan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, Isabel DeBre in Buenos Aires, Krutika Pathi in New Delhi and Karel Janicek in Prague contributed.

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