Ukrainian ATACMS: What will American missiles mean for the war?

With just over two months left in office, President Joe Biden belatedly heeded Ukraine's calls and reportedly authorized the use of state-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) -United in Russia. This comes just over a week after another post-election decision allowing a small number of U.S. defense companies to repair U.S.-made weapons systems in Ukraine, rather than forcing the Ukrainians to bring their weapons in the countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). for repair. All of this brings to mind the anonymous dictum, often wrongly attributed to former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, that Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing, but only after all other options have been exhausted.

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This is in fact practically the credo of the Biden administration when it comes to Ukraine. Biden gave the Ukrainians access to almost every weapon they requested, including Abrams heavy tanks, Bradley armored fighting vehicles, Patriot air defense batteries, high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) and, more recently, the F-16 fighter jets, but only after agonizing and drawn-out deliberations during which Ukraine paid a considerable price in land and lives for not having had earlier weapon systems.

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This caution made sense at the start of the war, which began with the unprovoked invasion of Russia on February 24, 2022, when there were legitimate fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin might use nuclear weapons to offset the setbacks suffered by its conventional forces on the battlefield. . But this dangerous point passed in the fall of 2022 when Putin did not go nuclear despite substantial defeats in Kharkiv and Kherson provinces. Since then, Ukraine has crossed one supposed Russian red line after another, including repeatedly deploying drones to bomb Moscow and sending Ukrainian ground forces to occupy part of Russia's Kursk province in August 2024. Yet , Biden always proceeded with extreme caution, which forced Ukraine to fight. a bitter war of attrition against a much larger country.

Ukraine now finds itself on the defensive and losing ground in the eastern Donbass region at the fastest rate since 2022. Russian troops are gradually moving towards the key city of Pokrovsk, a major logistics and transport hub which anchors the Ukrainian defense of the east, although at enormous cost. The UK's Chief of Defense Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, recently said that October was the costliest month of the entire war for Russian forces, with Russia losing an average of 1,500 soldiers killed or injured every day. In total, Radakin estimates that Russia has lost 700,000 dead or wounded since the fighting began.

But Russia has stepped up its recruitment to cope with its losses, and its forces have now been reinforced by 10,000 North Korean troops as part of an offensive to drive the Ukrainians from Russia's Kursk region. It was the involvement of the North Koreans that evidently prompted Biden to reconsider his ban on Ukraine using ATACMS against targets in Russia. Biden had already authorized the Ukrainians to deploy HIMARS, with a range of fifty miles, inside Russia to defend Kharkiv. ATACMS, with a range of 190 miles, will allow the Ukrainians to strike even deeper against military targets in Russia. It is possible that following the US decision, Britain and France will allow Ukraine to similarly use their SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which have a range of around 155 miles, although that no decision has yet been taken in Paris and London.

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Some U.S. Department of Defense officials opposed the ATACMS decision on the grounds that Russia had already moved many of its aircraft out of their range and that the Ukrainians did not have enough ATACMS to change the course of the war. (Some estimates put the total number of missiles kyiv possesses at fewer than fifty.) But the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, has identified hundreds of significant Russian military targets within 300 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. These would now include bases where North Korean troops are preparing to attack Ukrainian positions.

The Biden administration believes it is necessary to inflict heavy losses on North Korean troops to deter North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un from sending more of his troops to fight alongside Russia. Bloomberg reported that Pyongyang could send around 100,000 additional troops. Even this larger amount would only offset less than three months of Russian combat losses, but North Korean troop contributions may reduce pressure on Putin to organize unpopular and involuntary call-ups of Russian reservists.

Learn more about:

Ukraine

Russia

Military operations

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)

UNITED STATES

Unfortunately, time may be running out for U.S. aid to Ukraine. President-elect Donald Trump will take office on January 20. He pledged to end the war within a day, without explaining how he could accomplish this feat. Many in the Trump camp appear eager to cut off aid to Ukraine. But that would make a Russian victory likely, which would be a major strategic setback for the United States and an embarrassment for Trump. If Trump is serious about ending the war fairly, Biden's decision to expand ATACMS' authority may help increase pressure on Putin to negotiate.

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