What does Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use longer-range US weapons mean?

kyiv, Ukraine (AP) Russia says Ukraine has fired U.S.-made long-range weapons into its territory, days after the United States said it would allow kyiv to use the systems to carry out deeper strikes, a long-standing request from kyiv.

It remains unclear whether there are limits to Ukraine's use of the Army's Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, as have been the case with other U.S. missile systems. Their deployment could at least initially be limited to curbing Russia's advance in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops seized territory earlier this year.

Ukraine fired six US-made ATACMS missiles at Russia's Bryansk region, Moscow announced Tuesday, in what would be kyiv's first use of the weapon in Russia.

The Ukrainian General Staff did not confirm whether the weapon had been used, but said the armed forces had struck an ammunition warehouse in the Bryansk region, neighboring Kursk, and that it was likely supplying the forces Russians who fought there.

Since the first year of the war, Ukrainian leaders have pressured their Western allies to allow them to use advanced weapons to strike key targets in Russia, which they hope would erode Moscow's capabilities before his troops reach the front line and could make the task more difficult for the Russians. armed forces to strike Ukrainian territory. It could also serve as a deterrent in the event of future ceasefire negotiations.

The United States has long opposed the move, with President Joe Biden determined to avoid any escalation that he says could drag the United States and other NATO members into direct conflict with Russia , equipped with nuclear weapons. The Kremlin warned on Monday that the decision was adding fuel to the fire.

The decision comes in the final days of Biden's presidency, before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Trump has said he will end the war quickly, which many fear could force unpleasant concessions from kyiv.

What are ATACMS?

The ballistic missiles, developed by US aerospace and defense company Lockheed Martin, have a strike distance almost twice as long, or 300 kilometers (190 miles), as most weapons in Ukraine's possession. They carry a larger payload and have more precise targeting for precise attacks on airfields, munitions depots and strategic infrastructure.

The United States has supplied Ukraine with dozens of ATACMS (pronounced Attack-ems) and they have been used to destroy military targets in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, such as Crimea, but not on the Russian soil.

What is Biden allowing Ukraine to do?

Biden authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike deeper into Russia, according to a U.S. official and three other people familiar with the matter.

The longer-range missiles will likely be used in response to North Korea's decision to send troops to support the Kremlin's forces, according to one of the people familiar with the matter. Pyongyang's troops are reportedly being deployed to help the Russian military drive Ukrainian forces out of the Russian border region of Kursk, where they launched an incursion in August.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the U.S. decision.

This was the second time Washington extended Ukraine's authority to use its U.S.-supplied weapons systems on Russian territory.

In May, after the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region threatened to strain Ukrainian forces, Biden authorized the use of HIMARS systems with a range of 80 kilometers (50 miles) to quell that advance. This decision helped Ukrainian soldiers stabilize the fight for a time by forcing Russian forces to withdraw their military assets.

Why does Ukraine need longer-range weapons?

Ukraine has asked its Western allies for longer-range weapons to shift the balance of power in a war where Russia has better resources and to precisely strike air bases, supply depots and centers of communication hundreds of kilometers from the border. .

He hopes the weapons will help blunt Russia's air power and weaken the supply lines it needs to launch daily strikes against Ukraine and to sustain its ground military offensive in Ukraine.

If used at Kursk, these weapons would likely require Russian forces preparing for counterattacks to push back valuable equipment and manpower and complicate battle plans.

Instead of Western weapons, Ukraine regularly strikes Russia with domestically produced weapons, some capable of traveling up to 1,000 kilometers (620 miles), but it still lacks sufficient quantities to cause serious long-term damage. term.

Will this decision change the course of the war?

Ukrainian leaders have been cautious about the announcement, and senior U.S. military and defense officials have consistently maintained that it would not be a game-changer. They also noted that Russia had put many key assets out of reach.

“I don't believe any single capability is decisive and I stand by that comment,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said, noting that the Ukrainians have other means of striking long-range targets.

Analysts also suggested the effect could be limited.

Today, many media are talking about the fact that we have received authorization to take appropriate measures. But blows are not struck with words. Such things are not announced. The rockets will speak for themselves, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said of the announcement.

The effect of the decision depends on the rules set for the use of weapons.

If the strikes were authorized across Russia, they could significantly complicate Moscow's ability to meet battlefield demands.

If the strikes are limited to the Kursk region, Russia could move its command centers and air units to neighboring regions, thereby mitigating the effect of these logistical challenges. It would also mean that many of the important targets that Ukrainian officials have expressed a desire to achieve may still be out of reach.

Regardless, Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Charlie Dietz noted that ATACMS would not be the answer to the primary threat Ukraine faces from Russian glide bombs, which are fired more than 300 kilometers (180 miles), beyond ATACMS. reach.

Additionally, ATACMS' overall supply is limited, so U.S. officials have questioned in the past whether they could give Ukraine enough to make a difference, although some supporters say even a few Deeper strikes inside Russia would force its military to change its deployments and spend more. more of its resources.

Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, said the U.S. decision would not change the course of the war.

To truly impose costs on Russia, Ukraine would need significant stocks of ATACMS, which it does not have and will not receive because U.S. supplies are limited, she said. declared.

Moreover, the biggest obstacle Ukraine faces is the lack of trained and ready personnel, a challenge that neither the United States nor its European allies can solve and that all the weapons in the world will not overcome. she added.

What are the main remaining questions?

In addition to it being unclear what restrictions, if any, the United States will place on the use of weapons, it is also unclear how many the United States will give to Ukraine.

While the United States has provided ATACMS to Ukraine as part of various military aid programs, the Defense Department will not disclose how many missiles were sent or exactly how many of those missiles the Pentagon has. Estimates suggest the United States has a figure in the low thousands.

Additionally, the outcome of the recent US election raises questions about how long this policy will be in effect. Trump has repeatedly criticized the Biden administration's spending to support Ukraine and could reverse measures like this.

On the other hand, it is also unclear whether other allies could intervene.

The U.S. decision could encourage Britain and France to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles, also known as SCALP missiles, with a range of 250 kilometers (155 miles).

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Hanna Arhirova, Associated Press writer in Kyiv, Ukraine; Aamer Madhani in Manaus, Brazil; and Colleen Long, Zeke Miller, Matthew Lee, Ellen Knickmeyer and Lolita C. Baldor in Washington contributed to this report.

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