From a $300 billion climate finance deal to global carbon trading, here's what was and wasn't achieved at the COP29 climate negotiations.

The oil-laden dust has settled on this year's UN climate summit, COP29, held over the past fortnight in Baku, Azerbaijan. Climate scientists, executives, lobbyists and delegates are going home.

The meeting made incremental progress. Negotiators agreed on a new climate finance target of at least $300 billion a year by 2035 (A$460 billion), up from the current $100 billion. These funds would help developing countries transition away from fossil fuels, adapt to global warming and respond to loss and damage caused by climate disasters.

Nations also agreed on key rules for a global carbon trading market, the final agreement needed to make the 2015 Paris Agreement fully operational.

As UN climate chief Simon Stiell said during the final session, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) showed that the Paris Agreement is bearing fruit on climate action, but that national governments must further pick up the pace.

I attended COP29 as an expert in international climate law and litigation. I observed the financial negotiations and represented a new alliance of Australian and Pacific universities supporting international climate cooperation.

At first, expectations for the conference were low. The United States has just voted for the return of climate denier Donald Trump. And Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared oil and gas a gift from God during an opening event.

But despite these considerable headwinds, progress has been made.

COP29 showed that the Paris Agreement was delivering results on climate action, but more needs to be done. Anatoly Maltsev/EPA Progress on climate finance

The world's rich countries currently contribute $100 billion a year to climate finance in developing countries. It funds measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change by making systems more resilient.

Two years ago, countries agreed to create a new loss and damage fund for countries facing climate disasters, launched at the Dubai summit last year.

During these COP29 negotiations, Australia announced that it would contribute 50 million Australian dollars (32 million US dollars) to this fund. Climate change is already costing developing countries enormous sums, estimated at between $100 billion and $500 billion per year.

These financing flows from rich countries are essential to enable developing countries to increase their emissions reductions and respond to climate damage.

The COP29 agreement sets a target of at least $300 billion per year by 2035, with the richest countries leading the charge.

Although this target represents a tripling of the previous target, it is a far cry from the $400 billion to $900 billion that many developing countries were demanding in funding from rich governments.

Disappointed representatives from developing countries described the sum as a pittance and a joke. This figure also falls short of what experts say would be needed by 2035 to meet the world's climate finance needs.

Aware of this gap, the text calls on all actors to work together to increase financing from all public and private sources to at least US$1.3 trillion per year by 2035. Ways to do this achieve will be presented at COP30 in Belm, Brazil, one year from now.

Developing countries need climate finance to resist the effects of climate change. Mick Tsikas/AAP Making the international carbon market a reality

COP29 also reached an agreement that ends long-standing disputes over the realization of the international carbon market. This hard-won deal set global standards for carbon trading, paving the way for developing countries to increase their renewable energy capacity.

These rules will pave the way for the exchange of carbon credits between countries. Each credit represents one ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere or not emitted. The deal will give countries more flexibility in how they meet their emissions targets.

It's not perfect. Concerns remain over whether the rules will ensure transactions reflect real plans and how transparent and accountable the market will be.

But the deal will boost the importance of carbon credits and could increase incentives to protect carbon sinks such as rainforests, seagrasses and mangroves, with benefits for nature.

New national climate goals

By February 2025, the 195 Paris signatories must announce more ambitious emissions targets. Some countries announced their new plans at COP29.

The most ambitious was the United Kingdom, which raised its reduction target by 68% for 2030, to 81% below the 1990 level by 2035.

Next year's host country Brazil has released new targets for a decline of 59-67% from 2005 levels by 2035.

But Brazil has not changed its ambitions for 2030 and plans to increase its oil and gas production by 36% by 2035.

The UAE has announced a 47% reduction target by 2035, before reaching net zero emissions by 2050. But the pledge has been criticized by climate campaigners as the UAE is expected to increase production oil and gas by 34% by 2035.

The host country, Azerbaijan, has not revealed its goals. Many other countries, including Australia, have also been reluctant to announce new targets in Baku.

Indecision on fossil fuels

Fossil fuels were the elephant in the room. At last year's COP in Dubai, nations finally agreed to include language on:

move away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a fair, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action during this critical decade, to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, in line with scientific data.

But at this year's COP, no decisions were made on exactly how to begin this transition and fossil fuels are not explicitly mentioned in the final documents.

Delegates from the Saudi oil giant have repeatedly tried to block the mention of fossil fuels in all negotiating streams.

Azerbaijan is one of the birthplaces of the oil industry, with oil refineries operating since 1859. Rasul Guliyev/Shutterstock Trump's return was not a deciding factor

The implications of Trump's re-election for climate action have been widely discussed. But I have observed a surprising degree of acceptance, even optimism, toward climate cooperation.

The United States is the second largest emitter in the world, after China. Trump has promised to increase the country's oil and gas production and withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement as he did during his first term.

But climate action nevertheless continued, particularly at the Chinese renewable energy giant, which this year achieved its 2030 renewable energy target. The United States is no longer the main player in climate negotiations, and many countries are much further along in reducing emissions. Few show signs of turning back the clock.

When the United States withdraws, it creates a vacuum. During COP29, middle powers like Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia mobilized.

Negotiators from a high-ambition progressive coalition including small island states, the European Union and Latin American countries such as Colombia have played an important role in pushing to urgently increase funding for climate action .

China, for its part, is clearly eyeing the climate leadership position about to be vacated by the United States. And progressive US state leaders attended COP29 to show that parts of the US are still on board with climate action.

Pass the baton? U.S. Deputy Envoy Rick Duke speaks with Chinese Climate Envoy Liu Zhenmin at the Chinese Pavilion in Baku. Peter DeJong/AP Australias welcomes bid for 2026 talks in limbo

Australia's bid to host COP31 in 2026 alongside Pacific countries was tipped to win, given that it had the support of almost all of the 29 Western European and other countries that will decide from the host this time. Many observers were expecting an announcement at the end of COP29.

But no decision has been made, as competitor Trkiye has not withdrawn its offer.

An announcement is now likely in mid-2025, after the next Australian federal election.

And now ?

Many people are disappointed by COP29. It didn’t bring transformative change. The huge increase in climate finance called for by developing countries and many civil society actors has not happened.

This came as 2024 is on track to be the hottest on record and the costs of extreme weather have reached more than $2 trillion over the past decade.

But this year's negotiations are another step forward, affirming international cooperation on climate at a time of significant geopolitical tensions globally. As the UN's Simon Stiell said:

the UN Paris Agreement is humanity's life raft; there is nothing else [] We are on this journey together.

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