What is behind the US strategy of maintaining troops in post-Assad Syria? | Oil and gas news

Washington, DC US President Joe Biden's administration said it was taking a wait-and-see approach to the new government in Syria, with diplomats in recent weeks holding initial meetings with the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ( HTS), and the country's de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, as well as the new Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani.

But since rebels toppled longtime leader Bashar al-Assad in early December, the United States has said it will maintain its troop deployment in northeastern Syria, where American personnel continue to support the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as part of a decade. -long anti-ISIL (ISIS) mission.

In fact, the Pentagon in December updated the number of people it said were in the country, saying the number was actually 2,000, not the 900 it had said for years.

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, described the update as a not-so-subtle message to the various actors in Syria, urging them to take a cautious approach to with regard to the FDS and this sprawling and economically important territory. the group is in control as the country's future takes shape.

It also highlights how the United States, at least in the final days of the Biden administration, before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20, will seek to assert its influence in the formation of a new Syria, in part by having troops on the ground. .

It was a signal to Turkey, I think, and to the Arab forces that they should not attack the Kurdish region, Landis said, referring to territory controlled by the SDF, which has a large Syrian Kurdish population.

The goal was to draw a line that this is something that needs to be negotiated and not something to be settled on the battlefield.

On January 2, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reported that the US military appeared to be strengthening its bases in the region, including, according to the monitor's sources, building a new base in Ain al-Arab. However, a Pentagon spokesperson on Friday denied there were plans to establish any sort of base or presence there.

So what is behind the plans to maintain the US presence in Syria after the overthrow of Al-Assad?

Stated strategic priorities

Public messaging from the Biden administration has focused on a key priority in maintaining a military presence in Syria: the anti-IS (ISIS) operation, first launched in 2014 under the US presidency of Barack Obama.

Speaking to reporters on December 19, Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder also asserted that there were no plans to stop the Defeat ISIS mission. Ryder said the increase in troop numbers was intended to meet new mission requirements associated with the Defeat ISIS mission.

Mohammed Salih, a senior fellow at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, said there are indeed several other unspoken strategic interests behind the deployment of U.S. troops. However, the continuing threat of a resurgence of ISIL should not be dismissed.

While ISIL was territorially defeated in 2017, the Pentagon said in July that there were 153 attacks by the group's fighters in Iraq and Syria in the first six months of the year, the most double that of 2023.

While the SDF currently oversees prisons housing thousands of ISIL prisoners, a continued U.S. presence can serve as a deterrent to clashes with Turkish-backed groups that could degrade the security situation.

[Fighting ISIL] is still a very relevant goal, Salih told Al Jazeera. It has been a peaceful transition process so far, overall, but the lack of central authority also creates very significant opportunities for chaos that a group like ISIS can exploit. They are very good at adapting to the circumstances they face and following this gradual path of return, as they did in Iraq in 2010 and 2011.

For its part, Turkey, which supported the rebel offensive led by HTS as well as the Syrian National Army (SNA), proposed a more comprehensive takeover of the anti-IS mission.

Turkey considers the People's Defense Units (YPG), which make up the majority of SDF fighters, to be a terrorist organization. The Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is considered a terrorist group by both Ankara and Washington.

However, Turkey's opposition to the SDF has long put it at odds with fellow NATO ally the United States over the latter's support for the group.

Coins

The SDF currently controls a large part of northeastern Syria, accounting for almost a third of the country's total territory. The lands it controls contain around 70 percent of Syria's oil and gas deposits.

Combined with relief from the crushing U.S. and foreign sanctions imposed on areas controlled by al-Assad during his rule, control of these oil fields will be essential for Syria's future economic development. Al-Sharaa and al-Shibani made this development the focus of their initial contacts with the media and foreign envoys.

Syria needs major foreign investment in its oil industry to bring it back online, renovate and refurbish it, Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies, told Al Jazeera. Only the Syrian government can do this because the United States does not have the authority to sign long-term leases with foreign governments. Neither do the Kurds, because they do not constitute a recognized government. These wells belong to the Syrian government.

The presence of U.S. troops in Syria was partly intended to ensure that these fossil fuel deposits remain out of the hands of ISIL, which briefly controlled them, and al-Assad's government.

In 2019, then-US President Trump directly addressed this goal, telling a White House press conference alongside Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the US had left troops behind only for oil. A Pentagon official later said securing the oil fields was a subordinate task to defeating ISIS in Syria.

Whatever the United States' motivation to secure these fields in recent years, their release will be a key lever in upcoming negotiations, Landis said.

Sanctions and oil are important bargaining chips, Landis said.

These negotiations will notably focus on the question of whether the SDF will have a role in the new government. As a first sign of cooperation, al-Sharaa met with SDF delegates last week.

Possible pressure from Israel

Washington could also seek to influence the tact that the new Syrian government will take with US enemies like Iran and its regional allies, notably Israel, which has seized Syrian territory beyond the since-occupied Golan Heights. early December.

All of this presents an opportunity to reshape or restructure the regional order in a way that would be more consistent with U.S. priorities, said Salih, of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

While the opposition takeover largely destroyed Iranian influence in Syria and cut Tehran's supply lines to Lebanese Hezbollah, it also opened the door to increased influence from Turkey, which adopted a hard line against Israel in the context of the war in Gaza.

In return, Israel could put increased pressure on its ironclad ally, Washington, to obtain assurances from Turkey, according to Landis.

Israel, obviously America's closest ally in the region, is very nervous about trading an Iranian proxy for a Turkish one, Landis said. Thus, Israel's interests will be in keeping Syria as weak, divided and poor as possible and may indeed attempt to exert some pressure for the United States to remain in Syria with its troops.

But that pressure could run counter to U.S. interests, he noted, particularly with regional Arab allies increasingly supporting al-Sharaa. Although the U.S. presence may be tolerated for the immediate future, when the newly formed Syrian government army is ill-equipped to respond to ISIS, there will be an expiration date.

They can only drag this out for so long before they alienate everyone, Landis said. There are many reasons why America doesn't really want to ruin efforts to unify Syria.

The future and Trump

Then there is the question of the ongoing Trump administration and what the second term of a president known for his volatile foreign policy will mean for Syria.

Trump has spoken sparingly about the situation. In his typically nebulous style, he wrote in early December on his TruthSocial platform that Syria is not our fight.

The statement appears to be in line with Trump's America First commitments to end U.S. military involvement abroad, even though his past efforts to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria failed due to strong opposition within of his own administration.

Given his appointments this time around, Trump appears to be on a similar collision course, according to Salih.

Figures such as National Security Advisor Congressman Mike Waltz and Secretary of State candidate Marco Rubio have strongly and clearly opposed Turkish military operations against the SDF and the need for states to -United to maintain a military deployment in Syria. said.

All of this could go against Trump's personal wishes and desires.

Further muddying the waters, Trump in December appeared to praise Ankara for supporting the rebels' overthrow of Al-Assad, while describing the overthrow as a hostile takeover by Turkey.

Some observers have speculated that Trump may be more willing to abandon anti-ISIS operations than his predecessor, although no clear position has emerged.

I wouldn't expect Syrian politics to be settled yet, Salih said.

I think there will be many difficulties within the new administration regarding Syria policy.

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