What impact will Trump's election as president actually have on the UK?

Meanwhile, regardless of whether Musk donates £80m for reforms, this should spur government action, said Duncan Hames, head of policy and programs at Transparency International UK. “The UK government should use this moment to introduce meaningful political contribution limits to stem the corrosive effects of big money buying influence and reduce foreign influence in UK elections,” Hames said. “Ensuring strong democratic institutions and maintaining respect for the rule of law are essential to restoring trust in politics, no matter who is in power.”

climate

Trump's election victory was a major blow to global climate action, branding a return to power for a climate-skeptic president who withdrew from the Paris Agreement and called green energy efforts a “scam.”

It could spark a more polarized debate on climate action within the UK and represent a serious test for Keir Starmer's government.

“Climate change has drawn into a polarized “culture war” debate in the United States, where political identity has become closely tied to views on the issue. This is something we have avoided so far in the UK because there is broad agreement across two key areas. says Bobby Duffy, professor of public policy and director of the Policy Institute at King's College London.

“But there are still divisions, and these are likely to be further highlighted by reform, especially with the growing voices of key American figures associated with Donald Trump’s incoming administration.”

Combined with explicit pressure from Trump, who has already called Labor's move away from North Sea oil and gas a “very big mistake”, the changes could increase pressure on Labor.

“This gives opponents of Britain’s climate policy a new angle from which to attack the government,” says Chris Aylett, a researcher at Chatham House’s Center for Environment and Society. Complaints that arose out of concerns about rural areas may now be aroused by concerns of alienating allies, he said.

“It will be a huge test of the political courage of the new government,” adds Aylett.

economy

President Trump is so unpredictable that it's difficult to judge his economic policies, said Jo Michell, an economics professor at the University of the West of England. On the one hand, we could see massive tariffs, trade wars with U.S. allies, and mass deportations. On the other side, we see something closer to classic Republican policies like tax cuts and deregulation, with symbolic measures on tariffs.

“One of the few things economists agree on is that there are no winners in a trade war,” says Michell. “If he goes for the extreme version he has been talking about on the campaign trail, it will be very damaging to the global economy. “This will lead to higher inflation, which means central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer.”

A trade war means the quality of products falls while prices rise. Brexit may present some opportunities as the UK will no longer be a member of the customs union. “It is quite possible that the UK could be selected for special treatment and avoid tariffs. In that sense, there is a potential upside to Brexit,” says Michell.

The president-elect also wants NATO members, including the UK, to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, well above Labour's current target of 2.5%. This will make life more difficult for a government that is already raising taxes and cutting spending, and spending on defense will also have less of a positive “spillover” effect than in areas like infrastructure. “To a stronger degree it must be done at the expense of other things. So we have to sacrifice other government spending, raise taxes or increase borrowing,” says Michell.

refugee rights

“Another Trump presidency will have a global impact on immigrant rights. Trump and his allies are using classic far-right tactics to scapegoat immigrants, and their language has emboldened extremist groups in the UK.” says Ravishaan Rahel Muthiah, director of communications at the Joint Center for Immigrant Welfare.

“Instead of challenging this hateful rhetoric, Keir Starmer described the previous government as conducting an ‘open borders experiment’, which saw hundreds of people die crossing the Channel in recent days. This kind of hyperbole appeases the far right while our clients deal with the dire real-world consequences of increased hatred against minorities and people of color.”

adhesion

Experts say one thing is certain: Trump's return will not weaken Britain's obsession with American politics.

“Once again, what he and those around him say will take up a lot of space in our public sphere,” says Peter Allen, professor of political science at the University of Bath. “It is difficult to say that this will have a direct negative impact on policy debate or developments in the UK, but it is even harder to see it as a positive rather than an undesirable addition to British public life.”

Philip Cowley, professor of political science at Queen Mary, University of London, adds: “That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be interested in it. But media outlets obsessively cover the minutiae of American politics, often ignoring developments in France, even if they are quite poor. “I’m particularly surprised by the lack of coverage of Ireland.”

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