Trump faces host of ‘bad options’ on Iran as diplomacy falters | US-Israeli war against Iran

Optimism surrounding another round of peace proposals aimed at shaping a deal between Iran and the United States quickly faded this week as the two sides instead appeared to drift further apart, digging in and insisting that the other compromise return to negotiations.

U.S. President Donald Trump said the already fragile ceasefire with Iran, in effect since April 8, was now “on life support,” and members of his administration have increasingly hinted that the United States could return to fighting.

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But analysts say that for all of Trump’s bluster on Truth Social, his favorite megaphone, the US president is now caught between escalation and concession, with the region increasingly stuck in a gray zone of neither peace nor war.

A resumption of hostilities remains possible, but the war is unpopular among Americans and could weigh heavily on Republicans as crucial midterm elections approach. Yet getting the United States out of the conflict and reaching a deal may require Trump to concede ground to Tehran — whether on its nuclear program or on Iran’s role in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint through which about a fifth of global energy exports pass.

“The White House is left with a series of bad options,” said Allison Minor, a former official at the U.S. State Department and National Security Council, and currently director of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Integration Project.

Tehran wants an end to the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon; it wants the first stage of negotiations to focus on ending hostilities before moving to a second stage to discuss its nuclear program and support for proxy groups. It rejects the dismantling of its nuclear program and wants sanctions lifted as well as recognition of its influence on this key waterway. Trump called his latest proposal – with these demands – “rubbish.”

So what are his options?

On Sunday, the US president suggested additional military measures may be necessary, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested the war was not over. Iran’s enriched uranium remains in the country – although it is likely buried under the rubble of last June’s US and Israeli bombings. Iranian enrichment sites have not been dismantled. And Tehran still retains its proxy networks and ballistic missile arsenal, Netanyahu said in a CBS interview. “There is work to be done,” Trump said.

But while the United States and Israel may well resume attacks on Iran, the prospect of a protracted conflict with no end in sight could translate into a major political handicap for Trump, said Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the US German Marshall Fund.

“Things are not evolving the way either side might think,” he said, noting that Iran’s leaders have already proven more resilient and durable — with a higher threshold for physical and economic suffering — than the U.S. administration had expected.

Additionally, renewed fighting would affect the United States’ ability to respond to threats elsewhere, including in the Indo-Pacific region, Lesser said, amid growing concerns about depleting U.S. munitions stockpiles after five weeks of bombing Iran. A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies warns that the conflict has already reduced Washington’s preparedness for other potential confrontations, notably with China.

Iran has already shown what would happen if the United States and Israel resumed bombing, with Gulf allies bearing the brunt. After Trump announced “Project Freedom” – an initiative to force the narrow waterway open to allow blocked ships to transit – Iran responded with a barrage of missiles and drones aimed at the United Arab Emirates. U.S. officials argued that the attacks were not enough to be considered a violation of the fragile ceasefire agreed to in early April – a sign of the Trump administration’s lack of appetite to resume fighting, observers say. Instead, the US president suspended the Hormuz initiative within 24 hours, although a naval blockade of Iran-linked ships seeking to pass through the strait remains in place.

Pressure is also mounting at home. The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey released Tuesday suggests that two-thirds of Americans surveyed do not believe Trump has given a clear explanation of why the United States fought this war. And the same percentage are feeling the financial strains of war as gas, oil and fertilizer prices rise. Trump’s approval rating of 36% remains well below last year’s 47%, heading into November midterm elections that could determine whether the Republican Party retains control of Congress.

Although the U.S. president has often been relatively insensitive to popular opinion in Washington, he cares about market fluctuations, energy prices and inflation and “understands that the status quo cannot be protected indefinitely,” said the Atlantic Council’s Minor. “He will find a creative framework to present an agreement as a victory even if he has to concede something” to Iran, she added.

Trump, she added, is unlikely to convince Iran to reach a deal limiting its nuclear program and give up control of the Strait of Hormuz. “He will be forced to prioritize one over the other and he will prioritize the nuclear deal,” Minor said.

At the same time, Iran’s position in the negotiations has hardened. Iran’s ceasefire proposals and defiant stance reflect a leadership that emerged from the conflict confident in its ability to gain the upper hand and unlikely to yield to U.S. pressure, said Dennis Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies.

From Tehran’s perspective, the war and economic pressure campaign have failed to impose strategic concessions. Rather, Citrinowicz said, Iran appears to view the crisis as an opportunity to expand its influence and redefine deterrence vis-à-vis Washington. Yet Iran’s confidence masks significant vulnerabilities, including growing economic tensions and damage to parts of its military infrastructure.

“The Iranian response leaves Trump with very few viable options, and all of them range from worst to worst: either accept terms that are politically impossible in Washington, or further escalate in a way that could trigger a broader regional confrontation without actually changing Tehran’s fundamental positions,” he said on X.

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