Traders’ hopes fade for US-Iran nuclear deal this year despite reports of possible ceasefire deal

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The chances of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal being reached this year remained low in prediction markets after an Axios report found the two countries had agreed to a ceasefire that still requires further negotiations to discuss nuclear demands.

There is around a 55% chance that the two countries will reach a nuclear deal by November, according to Kalshi traders. The chances of a deal being reached before October are 49% and before December 55% as of Thursday afternoon.

The Axios report, citing two U.S. officials and a regional source, says Trump has yet to approve a 60-day memorandum of understanding after the first three months of the war.

Although the report suggests that an agreement on nuclear requirements still requires “intensive negotiations,” it appears to be a priority. Iran will not seek nuclear weapons as part of the deal, officials said.

The 60-day memorandum of understanding will also address the elimination of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and how to proceed with its enrichment, Axios reported.

“This is a deal to bring everyone to the table. We will work out the details during negotiations,” one of the US officials told Axios.

Economic and military options

If Iran fails to meet nuclear demands during negotiations, U.S. officials said Trump would have economic or military options on the table.

Officials said navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would be “unlimited,” that Iran would remove all mines within 30 days and that ships would not be subject to any tolls or harassment.

The US naval blockade will be lifted in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping, officials added. The withdrawal of American forces must also be the subject of a final agreement.

After the report was released, West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell below $89 a barrel from near $91. Contracts recently traded closer to $89.34 per barrel on Thursday afternoon.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes both hit new intraday record highs following the release of the Middle East report.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.

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