Brexit could cost the UK economy 6%, according to Bank of England company data.

The British economy has taken a 6% hit from Brexit, according to economists who analyzed internal Bank of England data on the decisions, views and financial results of thousands of British companies since the referendum a decade ago.

The study analyzed the loss of growth by examining the data banks use to set interest rates, reconstructing how the UK would have grown if it had not chosen to leave the EU.

About half of the economic hit came from the huge surprises and uncertainties of the post-referendum period, while the rest came from rising trade barriers after the UK left the customs union and single market in 2021.

But some critics say the study doesn’t fully explain the outstanding performance of U.S. investment and technology industries or the European energy shock four years ago.

Nick Bloom, a British professor at Stanford University and co-author of the study, said Britain had been growing rapidly in the years before Brexit and was able to at least partially catch up with the United States without disruption. He argued that Bank of England corporate data provided important corroboration.

His paper concluded: “Brexit had a significant economic impact on the UK, but it increased gradually over the following decade.”

It comes as top Bank of England officials have outlined the economic consequences of Brexit increasingly candidly in speeches and interviews in recent months.

Recently, the bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, told reporters: “I think the level of economic activity and growth has been lower” as a result of Brexit.

“The reason for this is that reducing the size of the markets we deal with and thus reducing our export markets tends to have a negative impact on growth,” he said, adding that productivity and market size have also been affected.

But Bailey said the impact on financial services, while “not good,” was “not as detrimental as many people predicted at the time.”

Some policy economists have argued that it is difficult to model how much the UK would have grown without Brexit, and that such studies overestimate the impact of Brexit, especially at a time of so many global crises.

The latest version of the study was published ahead of the 10th anniversary of the referendum.

We used corporate data along with five traditional analysis methods. Company-level data points to a 6% hit over a 10-year period, but broader studies suggest an average of 8%.

The study was co-authored by Bloom and economists at the Bank of England, who have access to all of the Bank of England’s data. However, the paper does have an official disclaimer: “The views expressed do not necessarily represent the views of the Bank of England.”

There have been various attempts to isolate the impact of additional uncertainty and trade barriers with the EU on UK economic growth figures, but this study is the first to use key information from the Bank of England on the UK business sector in this way.

Decision-maker panel data is commonly used to inform interest rate settings, but was actually set up specifically by the Bank of England in 2016 to provide insight into the economic impact of Brexit. The authors used responses over several years to track companies’ exposure to various aspects of Brexit and reported the Brexit impact and changes to their financial accounts.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced he would meet EU member states at a summit in July to agree deals on food and agricultural exports, electricity and emissions trading. Areas of cooperation and coordination are also expected to be discussed in the future.

The BBC has contacted the political party for comment.

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