US-Iran ceasefire ‘façade’ collapses after biggest round of fighting in months

The battle for the Strait of Hormuz is intensifying as the United States and Iran trade increasingly violent blows to control this critical energy chokepoint.

The past week has seen three rounds of strikes by the US military, responding to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping and defending a route that runs along the Omani coast.

According to Central Command, US forces struck a total of 300 targets “to degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial vessels freely transiting the strait.”

The largest attack took place Saturday evening, when around 140 Iranian military targets were hit, including missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, munitions storage facilities, communications networks and coastal surveillance sites, the central command said.

A fourth wave came on Sunday as the United States carried out “a few strikes” against Iranian missile and air defense systems as well as small boats around the strait, sources told the Financial Times.

Meanwhile, Iran has attacked its Gulf Arab neighbors including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman, in the most widespread fighting since April.

Despite Tehran’s claims that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed again, the United States insisted this was not true.

“US forces are positioned and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available despite unwarranted Iranian aggression, harassment, threats and arbitrary statements. Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is fluid,” Central Command said on Sunday.

Since early May, U.S. forces have helped more than 800 commercial ships and 400 million barrels of crude oil transit the strait.

At the same time, Iran has argued that the memorandum of understanding signed with the United States last month gives it the power to regulate maritime traffic and has attacked ships that do not use a regime-backed corridor that runs along the Iranian coast.

The standoff has fueled increasingly violent skirmishes as Iran seeks to preserve its main leverage, namely the ability to effectively block traffic from Hormuz.

Indeed, ship tracking data has indicated that crossings along the US-defended route along the Oman coast have declined since the latest Iranian attacks.

And while Iran has been unable to defend itself against retaliatory airstrikes, the United States has been unable to reopen the strait by military force, protect all shipping from Iranian attacks, or deter Tehran from launching more drones and missiles.

For Sal Mercogliano, a professor at Campbell University specializing in military and maritime history, the recent fighting is a worrying sign, pointing to ambiguity and flaws in the memorandum of understanding.

“I have a feeling it could go very quickly, and that’s the fear once you unleash the dogs of war,” he said in a YouTube post on Sunday.

Mercogliano also called the ceasefire agreement a “facade” that could lead to further escalation. He pointed out that the so-called “tanker war” in the 1980s, which saw the US Navy defend Iranian commercial ships, set off a chain reaction of involvement in the Middle East for decades, culminating this year with the Iran War.

“And it’s just been a facade for quite a while,” he added. “And one of the things I fear is that we find ourselves in this undeclared naval war. And an undeclared naval war can escalate.”

With neither side backing down, hopes for a full restoration of freedom of navigation have faded and mediators are now simply seeking to split the difference.

Oman has reportedly drafted a proposal to manage traffic in the strait through two separately controlled routes: a southern corridor through Omani territorial waters and a northern corridor through Iranian waters.

For now, the United States maintains a significant military presence. Central Command said this week that 20 Navy warships were patrolling Middle East waters.

It has also been keen to demonstrate its ability to operate freely in the region, saying warships and aircraft transited the Arabian Sea in close formation last month.

For his part, President Donald Trump has been reluctant to restart all-out war, but recently said he would consider reimposing the naval blockade, which redirected 139 ships and disabled nine when it was in effect from mid-April to mid-June.

Halting the flow of ships carrying Iranian oil removed a major source of revenue for the regime and further hampered an economy already faltering before the war began.

In fact, the blockade was so effective the first time that senior Iranian officials told Iran’s Supreme Leader that it was crushing the economy.

President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that economic conditions were dire, that the U.S. naval blockade was crippling and that he would resign if a ceasefire deal was not approved, senior Iranian officials told the New York Times.

Iran’s central bank chief said separately that the country was facing a serious fiscal crisis, was unable to sell oil via other trade routes in the necessary volumes and would run out of food and essential medical supplies by the end of August if the blockade was not lifted, the report added.

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