When will the peak of the US Delta Variant be reached?

Many public health experts predicted that cases in the UK would continue upwards without signs of short-term relief.

Most recently, early last week, some epidemiologists reported that cases of coronavirus could reach 100,000 or 200,000 per day, warning of a “difficult summer” in the United Kingdom. increase. BBC news..

At this level, as many as 2,000 hospitalizations can occur each day, experts say, causing “serious disruption” to the national health service (NHS).

At that time, there were about 50,000 cases of coronavirus per day in the United Kingdom.

But then something unexpected happened.

A few days after “Free Day” on July 19 (when the country lifted most of the remaining coronavirus restrictions after three national blockades and the deaths of about 130,000 people), the reported number of cases It started to decrease.

They continued to fall for 7 days, until they rose again for 2 days … and then fell slightly again on Friday.

Today, the world is watching the progress of cases in the coming weeks in a country with high vaccination rates — 68% or more Percentage of people receiving at least one dose — and delta variants dominate new cases.

Dr. Graham Medley, a professor at the London School of Economics and Tropical Medicine, said: Parents..

To find out if the country is really past its current peak, he says you have to look not only at the case, but also at the COVID-19 hospitalization, which is about a week late.

If both the number of cases and the number of hospitalizations decreased, he wrote, “It can be said that the day when the number of cases was low three weeks ago was just after the peak, but in reality the peak of infection was one week before that.” I am.

Medley predicts that the country will not see a steady decline in cases, even if the current UK surge peaks. Instead, he expects many diminishing peaks in various locations “beyond the hills” over the next few months.

Britain was the bell for the United States throughout most of the pandemic. However, it varies from country to country and it is difficult to transfer the experience of the UK Delta Variant across the ocean.

Like the United Kingdom, Delta Variants are currently predominant in the United States and 8 out of 10..

However, vaccination campaigns in the United States are at a standstill. 57.9 percent of Americans Inoculate the COVID-19 vaccine at least once.Immunization rates also vary widely across countries and remain high in some counties Vulnerable to delta variant surge..

Texas is one of those dangerous areas.

“Our population is vulnerable enough to cause a surge beyond what was seen last summer and winter,” he said. Dr. Spencer Fox, Associate Director of the UTCOVID-19 Modeling Consortium, who helped develop forecasts in Texas.

He states that this vulnerability is due to the presence of delta variants, as well as a significant proportion of the population not immune to the virus, either by vaccination or by natural infection.

“Currently, we see the combined effects of all these factors,” he said.

Another COVID-19 model that surveys the entire United States predicts that coronavirus cases will continue to increase from summer to autumn, peaking in mid-October.

this projection Released last week by the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub. Combine 10 mathematical models from different groups of researchers to create an “ensemble” projection.

The group’s latest projections examine four scenarios based on the number of Americans vaccinated and the prevalence of predominant coronavirus variants.

Justin WrestlerThe University of North Carolina epidemiologist, PhD, who assists in running a modeling hub, said: NPR In the most likely scenario, vaccination is highest in about 70% of eligible Americans, and as seen in Delta, the most predominant variants are highly infectious.

In this scenario, the current peak of the surge occurs in mid-October, with approximately 59,000 cases and approximately 850 deaths per day.

This is right in the middle of the range. In the worst case of this scenario, 246,000 infections and approximately 4,500 deaths from COVID-19 can occur during peak October.

Such a model can have a variety of consequences, as many factors can affect the spread of the coronavirus and the consequent hospitalization and death of COVID-19.

However, they give a glimpse of what could happen in the near future under certain conditions and emphasize which interventions can help divert the surge.

With the proliferation of delta variants continuing in most parts of the United States, new efforts are being made to quickly launch a national deadlocked vaccination program.

Another reason to take stronger measures to control the spread of the virus is to reduce the risk of developing another, more dangerous variant.

“The biggest concern is that when the coronavirus is allowed to spread from person to person, there is a risk that the virus will mutate into a form that is no longer affected by the immune protection produced by the vaccine,” he said. rice field. Dr. Luis S. Nelson, Professor of Rutgers New Jersey Medical College and Chair of Emergency Medicine.

To combat the resurrected virus, more companies are demanding that employees be vaccinated before returning to the office.President Biden All federal officials You should be vaccinated or have regular tests and other mitigation measures.

Biden called on states and provinces to provide incentives for vaccination, including paying $ 100.

The surge itself seems to have motivated many who had postponed their first dose as the pace of vaccination increased.

These are all good signs.

“We know that vaccination is the most effective and safe way to get out of this pandemic,” Fox said.

The COVID-19 vaccine currently approved in the United States is very Effective against Delta mutants have eroded some of their protection, but infectious or symptomatic diseases.

However, vaccines still provide strong protection against serious illness and death. for that reason, The majority of hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19 It is currently unvaccinated in the United States.

With more vaccinations, fewer people will be hospitalized or die of COVID-19. Still, it will take time to see the effects of this new public interest on vaccination.

“We’re already in the middle of it, so vaccination can’t really prevent the outbreak of surges,” Fox said. “It takes too long for the vaccine to generate immunity to prevent the surge. We are already off the railroad tracks and on the train.”

As a result, his group is calling for other public health measures to reduce the number of cases and hospitalizations in Texas.

“Our predictions suggest that unless there are very strong behavioral changes, the medical capacity will be significantly burdened. Even vaccinated people wear masks and increase social distance. , We will begin to take more precautions, such as unnecessary and risky avoidance. Activities, “Fox said.