Is Novavax worth as much as Moderna by 2025?

Novavax ((((NASDAQ: NVAX) This year we gave investors a bumpy vehicle. After delaying the submission of coronavirus vaccine candidates to regulatory agencies, it fell 42% from highs. However, biotechnology stocks may be on the rise. The company has recently completed regulatory submissions to several countries and the European Union. Submissions in the United States must be submitted by the end of the year.

Novavax has also received two approvals in Indonesia and the Philippines, so it may be available soon. The company is also working on ways to become a top player in the post-pandemic world.

With all this good news in the short and long term, it’s time to think about Novavax’s growth potential. Can this vaccine company be as valuable as its bigger rivals? modern ((((NASDAQ: MRNA)?? Let’s check.

Image source: Getty Images.

“Within a few weeks” decision

First, let’s take a look at what Novavax offers in terms of potential products. In the short term, the company’s main revenue driver could be a candidate for the coronavirus vaccine. If all goes well, regulators in different countries and regions may quickly decide whether to allow use. According to Reuters, the European Union could make a decision “within a few weeks.” Novavax has already signed a contract to provide the region with as many as 200 million doses.

Earlier this year, Novavax said it expects billions of dollars in revenue to begin to flow in within four to six quarters. It was referring to the post-approval period. It is important to note that Novavax is a latecomer to the vaccine market.The company will not be easy Gain huge market share From the market leader Pfizer And Moderna.

But chances remain. First, Novavax candidates work differently than the leader’s mRNA vaccine. It may be an option for people looking for alternatives. Second, it may be used as part of vaccine mixing and matching. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently approved a practice that boosts people with shots that differ from the primary series. So, for example, if you’ve already been vaccinated twice with the Moderna vaccine, you can choose Novavax Shot as a booster, assuming the Novavax candidate has been approved.

And opportunities outside the United States could be even greater. Vaccines are still scarce in many areas. Novavax may help resolve this issue.

Prospects for the future

Let’s explore the future. Two potential products can significantly increase your bottom line. Final flu vaccine Influenza / COVID vaccine combination. Novavax’s influenza candidate is called NanoFlu, and the investigational vaccine met all major endpoints in critical trials. The next step is submission to the regulatory agency.

Another candidate is the combination of NanoFlu and Novavax coronavirus vaccine candidates. The company has significant advantages when it comes to bringing such products to market. It’s the fact that NanoFlu has already been proven in clinical trials. Moderna is also working on compound candidates, but Novavax goes a long way from a timeline perspective. Novavax recently completed registration for the Phase 1/2 trial. Candidates for Moderna are still in preclinical development.

Finally, let’s take a look at today’s market value and growth potential. Novavax certainly has room for growth. And in the medium term, it could be doubled or tripled from today’s level much easier than the larger player, Moderna.

NVAX market capitalization Data by Y Charts..

However, looking ahead to 2025, it seems unlikely that Novavax’s market value will reach Moderna’s market value. To reach Moderna’s current market capitalization, Novavax shares must rise to $ 1,300 per share (based on the current number of issued shares). That’s an increase of over 600% from today’s levels.

A few steps behind

I’ve seen Novavax make bigger jumps. Last year it surged 2,700%. But as the company grows, it becomes more difficult to make such extreme moves. At the same time, Moderna is also likely to grow, so it can always be a few steps ahead in terms of size.

However, this does not mean that Novavax is stagnant. Far from that: In the short term, news of the possibility of vaccination should increase its share and market value. And the final combined product has the potential to make Novavax the leading vaccine player of the future. So even if Novavax lags behind Moderna in terms of market capitalization, you can still add enough. Value to the portfolio..