Predictions say daily coronavirus cases can reach record

In the highly influential COVID-19 forecast, Omicron surge There can be as many as 400,000 new cases of coronavirus per day nationwide. This is well above last winter’s record of 250,000 per day.

Institute for Health Metrics, University of Washington project The Omicron surge continues to rise rapidly from December to January and can peak in late next month or early February. Despite the increase in the number of cases, it is predicted that the number of daily deaths will be lower than at the catastrophic peak of last winter.

Country — and California — Already showing annoying signs Of Omicron related surges. The United States reports an average of about 150,000 new cases of coronavirus per day, approaching the peak of the summer delta wave, reaching 164,000 new cases per day.

COVID-19 hospitalizations at peak this winter may be slightly higher than last year. To tell..

The laboratory also predicts COVID-19 for the day Dead (number) By early February, it could reach 2,000 people nationwide. This is about the same as the number reported during the Delta Surge, but with less than about 3,500 deaths per day during the peak of last winter.

The weather By the end of February, as many as 150 COVID-19 deaths per day are projected in California. This is similar to the peak of the summer delta wave. Still, it’s far less than last winter’s surge, where California recorded 550 deaths a day.

Increased use of masks Predictions suggest that coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 may be significantly reduced.

Ali Mokudad, a professor of health metric science at the institute, said booster shots could also help.

“A third dose to a qualified person will significantly improve protection. Wearing a mask will continue to be a very effective strategy to avoid Omicron infections and infections,” Mokudad said. Said on twitter..

“People who have not been vaccinated and have never been infected are at greatest risk. Vaccination of unvaccinated people is a powerful way to reduce personal risk. Age and coexistence. For those at high risk due to illness, avoiding indoor gatherings can further reduce the risk, “he added.

In the coming days, COVID-19 hospitalization will be a better way for local governments to determine what actions they need to take, according to Mokudad. This is because while Omicron is rapidly becoming widespread, the proportion of people infected with mutants that remain asymptomatic is relatively high. In addition, the proportion of newly infected people who require hospitalization is low.

Nonetheless, experts say that Omicron’s hyperinfectivity means that so many people can be infected at the same time. Even if a lower percentage of hospital care is needed, having enough people infected at the same time can strain the hospital system and, in some areas, Overwhelm them..

Health authorities Los Angeles County Recently, large indoor rallies have stated that they are particularly dangerous as infection rates rise. You can mitigate the risk by holding an event outdoors.

In another report earlier this week, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Said Early projections suggest that infections may surge in early January, “the number of peaks per day for new infections may exceed previous peaks.”

In an interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden’s Chief Medical Advisor, said that during this wave, almost everyone was “infected, especially unvaccinated or vaccinated.” I expected it.

“And those who have been vaccinated, especially those who have been boosted … are protected from infection or, if infected, have a relatively mild infection process,” Fauci said. He said he expects Omicron cases to peak within a few weeks, followed by a “similarly dramatic decline.”

Fauci called Omicron’s infectivity extraordinary.

“Sure, this is unprecedented to see the speed at which individual viruses spread around the world. It’s really rare.”

In various television interviews, Fauci said that if everyone over the age of 5 is vaccinated and, if qualified, a booster shot, family and friends can expect a relatively safe and enjoyable Christmas gathering without a mask. I am saying. He also suggested taking a test before the attendees gathered.

“Whenever a test is available, take additional steps and go another mile to get the test. It’s a good idea to get an additional cushion to alleviate your concerns. “Fauci said at NBC’s” Today “show.

“But if you No test availability And since you are fully vaccinated and boosted, you should feel comfortable eating a holiday meal or gathering with a vaccinated and boosted family. ” Told. Still, he said such a rally is not without risk.

According to the CDC, Omicron is spreading rapidly because it is not only highly infectious, but it is also likely to be transmitted to vaccinated and previously infected people.

Those who have been vaccinated Not so serious Especially if you get a booster shot, from Omicron.

Unvaccinated people are at greatest risk of serious illness due to coronavirus infection.

First publicly Verified The U.S. Omicron incident that led to death report In Harris County, Texas — A man in his 50s who was unvaccinated, had previously survived a coronavirus infection, and was in underlying health at high risk of serious complications.

Early data from the UK Vaccine efficacy against symptomatic infections from Omicron is 88% immediately after the second dose of Pfizer vaccination and drops to 34% about 6 months after the second dose, but 76% after booster shots. Shows that it rises to.

The data show that the protection against symptomatic infections from Omicron is decent after booster shots, but not as good as the protection against delta variants.

In the fight against Delta, the effectiveness of the vaccine against symptomatic infections was 88% immediately after the second dose of Pfizer vaccine, but decreased to 64% about 6 months after the second dose, 93 after booster immunization. It rose to%.