US added only 12,000 jobs in October in final pre-election economic report

Top line

The U.S. job market grew well below expectations in October, according to a government report released Friday morning, providing the last major update on the state of the U.S. economy before Election Day.

Hire signs outside a McDonald's restaurant in New York last month.

Bloomberg Finance LP 2024 Key Facts

The United States added 12,000 jobs last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' estimate of nonfarm job additions.

That figure is well below economists' median estimates of 110,000, according to Dow Jones data, while the well-lower September figure initially reported 254,000 job creations.

October was the weakest month for job growth since December 2020, a result the government said was to some extent the result of temporary events.

The unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, matching economists' forecasts for an unemployment rate of 4.1%, where it stood in September.

The government revised downward the August and September nonfarm employment estimates by 112,000, indicating a weaker labor market expansion in late summer than previously reported.

Tangent

Bank of America economists Aditya Bhave and Shruti Mishra identified several events that may have temporarily strained the size of the U.S. workforce last month, including work stoppages resulting from severe weather events like the hurricane Milton and worker strikes, such as the walkout of Boeing factory workers. . These distortions caused a reduction of at least 50,000 jobs last month, according to Bank of America, which also identified an increase of 25,000 government jobs due to election workers. In Friday's statement, the government said it was likely that wage employment estimates in some sectors were affected by the hurricanes.

Key context

The most widely cited labor market health report, the Nonfarm Payrolls Report, is a combination of monthly surveys of households and employers and is subject to frequent revision as new data from previous months arrive. The unemployment rate is up notably from 3.8% last October, reflecting the tougher conditions facing American workers and job seekers, but the unemployment rate remains well within the historic range normal, being lower than it has ever been from 2000 to 2016.

How is the Biden-Harris job market doing?

The latest report before Tuesday's election, results are in for the job market under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. From December 2020 to October, nonfarm payrolls increased from 142.5 million to 159 million, an increase of about 12%, the unemployment rate fell from 6.7% to 4.1%, and the wage average hourly rate increased from $29.90 to $35.46, a jump of 18.6%. Although key labor market data is decidedly positive, employment growth and falling unemployment at least partly reflect recovery from the temporary shock of COVID-19 lockdowns and wage growth is muddled by the prolonged period of inflation, with the consumer price index rising 20.1% from December 2020 to last September.

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