The Venezuela earthquake has exposed more than just fault lines

The twin earthquakes that struck Venezuela on June 24, killing more than 1,700 people and destroying entire neighborhoods, have become more than just a natural disaster. They have exposed the Venezuelan state’s deep structural failures, failures that have been decades in the making and that no political change can cover up.

As survivors dug through the rubble with their bare hands, shovels and ropes in the first crucial 72 hours, the absence of a functioning state became impossible to ignore. Heavy machinery arrived late. Search and rescue teams were not sufficient. Medical workers and volunteers reportedly faced bureaucratic hurdles, including roadblocks and permit applications. In some areas, security forces were accused not of protecting civilians, but of looting abandoned homes.

This is not just an earthquake story. It is a story of institutional collapse. For more than two decades, Venezuela has suffered successive political, economic, and humanitarian crises that have hollowed out state capacity. Corruption, politicization of the armed forces, and the systematic weakening of independent institutions have left the country dangerously unprepared for a disaster of this magnitude. The result is clear today with the government unable to effectively respond to the national emergency and the population increasingly forced to rely on themselves to survive.

The political ramifications are no less important. Interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez now faces the most serious test of her leadership since taking power following the arrest of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. Before the earthquake, her popularity ratings were already flagging amid the economic downturn and public skepticism about reform promises. Now, public anger has intensified in disaster areas. Videos from the worst-hit areas show frustration, desperation and anger directed at state authorities.

This crisis also comes at a sensitive political moment. Venezuela’s democratic opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado, has been pressing for new elections after strong evidence suggested the ruling establishment rigged the 2024 presidential election. Now the disaster has turned national attention away from political transition and toward emergency survival and reconstruction.

History shows that natural disasters can reshape political trajectories across Latin America. The 1985 Mexico City earthquake weakened the legitimacy of the long-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party and revitalized civil society. In Venezuela itself, the Vargas disaster of 1999 became a pivotal moment for Hugo Chavez, who used the disaster to strengthen his case for the revolutionary transformation of the country.

The question now is: What historical path will Venezuela follow? Disasters can weaken governments, but they can also provide opportunities for leaders to consolidate their power. Rodriguez may use the state of emergency to delay the democratic transition, centralize decision-making, and justify heightened security measures. Under the slogan of stability and reconstruction, the political opposition may face harsher repression.

This possibility should worry Washington. President Donald Trump’s administration has openly invested political capital in Rodriguez, portraying her as a pragmatic and more effective partner capable of stabilizing a post-Maduro Venezuela. But the earthquakes revealed how little the state machinery had changed. The same institutional weaknesses, corruption networks, and governance failures remain deeply entrenched.

This makes the current American position increasingly important. To a large extent, the success or failure of Venezuela’s transition now depends on Washington’s willingness to use its influence wisely. If American support becomes unconditional, focusing only on short-term stability, it risks enabling another authoritarian cycle under a new administration.

Five rescue stories from the Venezuela earthquake

Instead, the United States should link its political and economic support to measurable institutional reforms, including credible electoral guarantees, judicial independence, anti-corruption mechanisms, and transparency. The reconstruction process should not become a substitute for democratization.

Earthquakes shook Venezuela. What comes next may shake her political future further.

Imdat Oner is a former Turkish diplomat who served in Caracas, Venezuela, and currently works as a senior policy analyst at the Jack D. Gordon Public Policy.

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