Coronavirus is hundreds of times more deadly in people over the age of 60 than under 40

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Nil Menacemi, IUPUI

(Conversation) How deadly is the virus that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2? And what is the risk of death for people of different ages and demographics? These were numbers that were difficult to calculate during this pandemic.

To calculate the true mortality rate (more accurately called the Infection-Fatality Rate (IFR)), divide the total number of deaths from coronavirus by the total number of infections. The problem is that there are so many asymptomatic cases and limited testing for the majority of pandemics, making it very difficult to find the true number of infections.

The simplest way to calculate more accurate infection and mortality is to run a random test.

I am a Professor of Health Policy and Management. In April, in collaboration with the Indiana Department of Health, he led a team of researchers at the University of Indiana to randomly select and test people with SARS-CoV-2. Based on our statistical sample, we found that 2.8% of Indiana (approximately 188,000) were cumulatively infected by that time, and we determined that the mortality rate in Indiana was 0.58% ..

Using data collected over the last few months from this test program, my colleagues and I investigated how infection mortality varies by age, race, and other demographic factors. A study published on September 2 found that coronaviruses were hundreds of times more fatal than people under the age of 40 compared to people under the age of 40, and in Indiana three times more non-white people than white people. Have been reported to have died.

Age is most important, but race is also important

Not all groups of people face an equal risk of death from the coronavirus. Researchers and health officials knew there were discrepancies for several months, but calculating mortality rates provides the most accurate data on these differences.

Almost half of the deaths from COVID-19 occur among people in nursing homes. This is because these people are generally in poor health and face a much higher risk of serious illness. We wanted to identify the mortality risk for people not in nursing homes and other housing facilities, so the numbers below are for residents of the Indiana community.

The overall infectious mortality rate for people living in Indiana communities was 0.26%, or one death for every 385 people infected. Age was the largest factor affecting mortality, rather than race or gender.

People over the age of 60 died once in 58 infections with an IFR of 1.7%. For comparison, the IFR from US flu among people over the age of 65 is 0.8%. COVID-19 is about 2.5 times more deadly than influenza in this age group.

The risk decreases with age. For middle-aged adults aged 40 to 59, the IFR was 0.12%, or one death for every 833 infections.

It is also unusual for one in 10,000 people under 40 to die, with an IFR of 0.01%.

Age was the strongest factor affecting mortality, but racial differences were also significant. Non-Caucasian Indiana residents of all age groups had a 3-fold higher risk of death when infected when compared to Caucasian residents (IFR 0.59%)-0.18% IFR compared to Caucasian residents.

Mortality reflects other health indicators

For COVID-19, like most illnesses, the poorer your health before infection is, the less likely you are to fight the virus.

Researchers know that certain chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular, renal, pulmonary, and diabetes all increase the risk of death from COVID-19. Although our team did not collect extensive health data from the people we tested, these chronic illnesses are more common among older Americans and racial minorities in the United States.

Other factors, such as food and housing insecurity and lack of access to care, also make fighting the disease more difficult and more prevalent among the elderly and ethnic minorities. The high rates of infection and mortality found in these groups may be due to a combination of comorbidities and these other factors.

Do these numbers apply across the United States?

Our survey has thus far been the most accurate statewide survey of infection and mortality in the United States. The question is whether Indiana is comparable to other regions.

Indiana has a relatively low overall health status throughout the United States. However, the median age of Indiana is slightly lower than most states in the United States and lower than many states.

I think the numbers we’ve found about people living in Indiana communities are probably close to the national average, but the ratio of infections and mortality can vary from state to state or from town to town. IFR may be slightly lower if the state’s elderly population is healthier than the same Indiana group. Poor health increases your risk.

The most obvious way to prevent death and serious illness from COVID-19 is to reduce the number of people infected. By doing simple things like wearing a mask and practicing social distances, everyone can protect each other, especially the friends, neighbors, customers and opponents who are most at risk from pandemics.

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This article was republished from Conversation under the Creative Commons License. Read the original article here: https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-hundreds-of-times-more-deadly-for-people-over-60-than-people-under-40-145510..