The Kermadecs Earthquakes: Why Tsunami Warnings Last As Long As They Last

The seismologist says that the new technology deployed last year has strengthened the tsunami warning system in New Zealand, but there will still be uncertainty about the arrival of ocean waves after a seismic event at sea.

Watch, Wait, and Cameo at Whangārei Heads Photo: RNZ / Nita Blake-Persen

On Friday, a violent earthquake near the Kermadyk Islands triggered tsunami warnings around the Pacific Ocean and left thousands of New Zealanders fleeing to higher ground. The 8.1 earthquake was the largest of three major ocean events off New Zealand.

It took five hours to lift the evacuation notice – partly because the earthquake struck such a remote part of the ocean.

University of Auckland researcher Jennifer Eccles told the Morning Report that the wave movement after the earthquake was complex because it was traveling across the ocean, and thus there was an inherent difficulty in making accurate predictions of reaching shore.

She said there was a degree of “safer than sorry” the authorities took when the seismic disturbance occurred at sea.

“It’s relatively slow and takes different paths across the ocean, some of which will be faster than others. So in terms of the expected time for a tsunami in New Zealand, there is a two-hour spread, even across the North Island,” she said.

“Scientifically, although we know when the earthquake happened … there is a new technology being put up on the Internet in which the government is investing in DART buoys – and they will see the location of the tsunami, confirm that something has happened.”

DART buoys detect tsunami threats by measuring associated changes in water pressure via sea floor sensors. Deep sea instruments are able to measure changes in sea level of less than a millimeter in the depths of the ocean.

Two-way communication between a DART buoy and a 24/7 monitoring center enables fast assessment and post cautionary advice to be offered to the public.

“What allows us to do compared to what we were doing 10 years ago, when basically all we have is knowledge of an earthquake in the sea, it allows us to see the change in sea level rise basically as happens in a tsunami crossing the ocean, and this allows us to confirm that a tsunami has occurred. .

“If there is no warning then the warning can be changed earlier, but if there is one there is still a lot of uncertainty about how that will react in terms of a small tsunami.

She said that determining when small tsunamis will occur on land has been more difficult and there is a degree of uncertainty.

The tsunami was expected to arrive on Friday at 10.20 in the morning, and the alert was raised at 1.20 in the evening.

“As far as civil defense is concerned, often, especially because there is a great deal of uncertainty about sampling there in the ocean, they somewhat assume the worst case scenario and with some of these warnings, for example, just a disturbance in the marine or coastal shore, there are many From the uncertainty when talking about a quiet little thing …

“They were complex waves, and they can bounce off the coast in different ways, and sometimes you end up with an arrival delay in some places that can be relatively large.

She said getting messages to the public could improve in light of Friday’s events.

Meanwhile, researchers from Victoria University in Wellington have taken us one step closer to more accurately predicting the occurrence of large earthquakes.

Using data from the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, they were able to demonstrate that sediments can be used in underwater landslides – called torpedoes – to find out how many large earthquakes have occurred in a particular area in the past.

By assessing this pattern, they can then strongly estimate when the next earthquake will occur.

It is the first time that this method has been proven successful.

Jimmy Howarth, lead author of the study and senior lecturer in the School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences at Victoria University of Wellington University, told the Morning Report they came up with a pathway to identify potential earthquake threats.

“Seismologists were able to tell us that three big earthquakes happened on Friday because we have this network of seismometers around New Zealand and in the world that record the earth’s movements. So we can figure out where the earthquake happened and how big it was. That network of seismometers has been around already since.” 50 years or older.

However, scientists have also worked on the theory that sediments that build up on the sea floor in response to seismic vibration record detailed information about the Earth’s motion produced by prehistoric earthquakes. It is this information that adds to the tools scientists use and potentially provides a way to see patterns and predict events.

New Zealand researchers proved this hypothesis after the Kaikoura earthquake. They went aboard the Niwa research vessel and studied the “sea floor interface sediments” at the time of the earthquake, using radiometric dating techniques.

He said he unambiguously showed that tears had accumulated in response to the Kaikoura earthquake.

“We were able to prove that these turbulences record information about the strength of the vibration from the earthquake as well as the spatial extent of the vibration, the area in which those ground movements are felt.”

He said this technology has the potential to predict earthquakes by looking at long-term historical data and identifying patterns.

“Watch this space, because New Zealand has a hickory margin, which is our biggest and most restrictive seismic hazard, and we are currently working on long calls, from along the margin, looking at these turbulence and reconstructing their spatial patterns … for thousands of years and because you have this perspective. Long-term, it provides a more robust basis for predicting the probability that we will witness a similar event at some point in the future. ‘

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