Boris Johnson dangles threat of rebellion over Northern Ireland deal | Brexit

Boris Johnson is dangling the threat of a rebellion against Rishi Sunak after the announcement of a new post-Brexit deal that will tear up the former Prime Minister’s protocol on Northern Ireland and drop his legislation to overturn it.

Although most Tory MPs warmly welcomed the breakthrough after two years of negotiations, Johnson stayed away from the Commons chamber and reportedly did not decide whether to approve or oppose the framework of Windsor.

A source close to him said he was studying and considering the government’s proposals.

They did not deny that Johnson had urged the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which the hardline Brexit Tories at the European Research Group have said they are in sync with, to think carefully before passing judgment on the deal .

The source said it would not comment on the private discussions, after PoliticsHome reported that it had urged the DUP to be cautious about suggestions it was ready to approve the deal.

Although no Tory MP has yet openly criticized the deal, veteran Brexiter Bill Cash warned Sunak that he would carefully consider the text before deciding what to do. The devil, as always, is in the details, he said.

Mark Francois, chairman of the ERG, also said he hoped we didn’t find any nasty surprises that would materially undermine Northern Ireland’s position.

The ERG is set to hold a full members’ meeting on Tuesday evening to decide how to react to the Windsor framework, with a star chamber of lawyers meeting to consider Stormont’s plans to veto new EU laws in Ireland North.

Sunak promised MPs would get a vote on his deal when the time is right, and added that the result would be respected.

Several ERG members have said privately that they broadly support Sunaks’ deal. Provided the details are up to the press conference, basically I think it sounds like something they should be able to live with, one said. Another said he thought only a dozen headbangers were willing to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Some of the former Brexit Spartans who helped bring down Theresa May over her 2019 deal are now in government, including Steve Baker. He welcomed the deal and said other pragmatists should do it too.

However, former culture secretary Nadine Dorries slammed Baker for gushing over the deal, saying he was a key agitator who helped remove Johnson from Downing Street last July. She said: What little credibility he has left would be destroyed if he spoke out against Sunak. He has nowhere to go other than to smile and support.

Johnson urged Sunak not to drop his protocol bill, which has prompted an EU legal challenge. But the Prime Minister faces pressure to do so from senior European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, with whom he is expected to meet to discuss measures to tackle the smuggling of people across the Channel in small boats.

Any rebellion may end up being small, conservative strategists think. Hard-line Brexiteers, including former UK negotiator David Frost and former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg, have so far refrained from making critical interventions on the state of the deal based on reports from last week.

Rees-Mogg told ITV Peston on Monday night that the PM had achieved more than I thought possible with the deal. He insisted, however, that Johnson’s original agreement was not at fault, as he said the protocol still contained the means for his own amendment.

But even a dozen Tory MPs opposed to the deal could trigger bigger problems for Sunak later. Anand Menon, the UK director at a changing Europe think tank, said: The danger for the Prime Minister is that the opposition could be cumulative. A few rebels on the protocol, a few others on the budget, all of this could become a real headache if the local elections in May go badly.