Where are the US-Iran peace talks currently?

To understand where discussions about ending the US-Iran war currently stand, all we can assume with certainty is that Donald Trump’s statements are no guide. The US president said an agreement had been “extensively negotiated” on May 23.

This proposal would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. But he would not have immediately obtained concessions on Iran’s nuclear activities and ballistic missile capabilities. In response to negative reactions from Republican hawks, Trump then hardened the American position.

The following week, Trump again claimed he was “close to” approving a peace deal and U.S. officials began reporting that Iran had made crucial concessions. Iranian officials have denied reports that they have agreed to major concessions on uranium enrichment or the future of their nuclear program.

The talks were then suspended on June 1 after Iran protested the Israeli offensive in Lebanon and the United States and Iran exchanged military strikes. Trump said he “didn’t care” if the negotiations were over, but that evening he insisted once again that negotiations were continuing “at a rapid pace.”

According to Iranian media, the current situation is that Iran is studying the latest US proposal but communications between the two countries are suspended. The United States and Iran have also exchanged military strikes in recent days. So why do the two sides seem unable to narrow the gap between their respective positions?

An obvious obstacle is the dysfunctional conditions in which negotiations take place. Simply communicating through intermediaries creates delays and complications. The fact that the messages must then be acted upon by a reorganized and fractured political system, reluctant to use even the most basic communications technologies for fear of revealing the whereabouts of those responsible, adds another level of complexity.

But even a more unified Iranian regime, operating in peacetime, would still have to contend with the inconsistency of messaging, unpredictability and lack of professionalism that masquerades as statesmanship in Washington. Iranian officials don’t believe Trump has enough attention to negotiate a complex deal, nor do they believe he can be counted on to honor any agreement he signs.

In June 2025, and again in February 2026, Iranian diplomats believed they were engaged in serious negotiations and were already working on the technical details of a possible deal, but U.S. and Israeli military strikes followed soon after.

This has important implications for the choreography of any agreement aimed at ending current hostilities. Iran wants Washington to make concessions – on sanctions relief, an end to the US maritime blockade and the unfreezing of Iranian assets – before reciprocating. He also wants any deal to be legally binding on future U.S. administrations. The first solution is politically very difficult for Trump and the second is constitutionally impossible.

Iranian fishermen steer a boat past stranded ships in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of southern Iran on June 1. Amirhossein Khorgooei / ISNA News Agency / EPA

Trump himself argued, very unconvincingly, that he could force Iran to accept his maximalist demands. These include strict limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program, ending its support for proxy groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and dismantling Tehran’s nuclear activities.

And yet he appears desperate to avoid signing a deal that could be compared to Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal with Iran (known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA). Trump recklessly vandalized the JCPOA by withdrawing the United States from the deal in 2018.

The JCPOA contained 159 pages of commitments and technical annexes. It took a small army of diplomats and nuclear experts 20 months to negotiate. Currently, US diplomacy is led by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kuschner and billionaire real estate mogul Steve Witkoff. And Trump himself seems unsure of what could be considered a reasonable guarantee to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon.

At the same time, Iran’s enriched uranium is believed to be in the form of highly dangerous gas, much of it buried beneath collapsed facilities bombed during the 12-day war of 2025. So the initial process of verifying how much enriched uranium Iran has poses a far greater technical challenge than that which preceded the JCPOA. This in turn affects negotiations, because sanctions relief would be based on the amount of enriched uranium Iran ships.

Iran’s strengthened hand

The United States also engages in negotiations with significantly reduced leverage. By using military force against Iran, it has already played its ultimate coercive card. National and international opinion largely considers the result a failure.

Iran, on the other hand, believes it has survived the conflict. It is now led by a generation of leaders shaped by the experiences of that war and by a renewed confidence that hard power and the strategic use of Iranian geography can be used to reshape the regional order.

This has emboldened Iran to introduce demands that go well beyond the scope of the JCPOA, including its insistence that any broader settlement relate to Israeli military operations against its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It seems highly doubtful that a comprehensive agreement respecting the red lines proclaimed by Trump can be concluded. More realistically, but far from assured, an agreement could emerge under which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for financial incentives, with other issues thrown into the long grass and postponed to an uncertain second phase of negotiations.

The lesson of this war is that the Gulf states will surely have much less confidence in Washington’s ability to establish a stable regional order. Its failure to contain Iran, prevent escalation, or protect its allies from the consequences of its own failed military intervention is likely to accelerate efforts to build alternative security arrangements in the region.

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