Boris Johnson warned of a chicken coop to a safer seat | Boris Johnson

Despite the threat of being subjected to a high-profile overnight reversal, Boris Johnson has vowed to stand again in his precarious constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Yet should the former prime minister change his mind and decide to head for a safe seat he knows well, plans are hatched by rival parties to make life difficult for him.

The tempting prospect of returning to Henley has emerged, after the incumbent MP announced in recent days that he will not seek re-election in the Oxfordshire constituency. John Howell has held the seat since 2008, inheriting it from Johnson when he left to become mayor of London.

Should Johnson decide to head for safer ground in his former territory, local activists are already bracing for an anti-Johnson campaign. Leaflets are being designed and the launch of a Beat Boris fundraising campaign is set to be unveiled by the local Liberal Democrats, who are the main challengers to the seat.

Although Tory poll ratings remain in the doldrums, Henley is a much safer Tory seat than Uxbridge, where Johnson won a majority of 7,000 votes in the last election. Labor believes its national polling strength, combined with demographic shifts in the seat, could help it secure a huge moment in the next election by ousting Johnson. Henley, meanwhile, made a Conservative majority twice as large in 2019.

Enthusiastic local Lib Dem activists have dubbed their campaign, which is aided by the central party, Operation Yellowhammer. They believe that despite the majority of 14,000, the Lib Dem’s surge in the last election combined with Johnson’s increasingly divisive reputation could leave him vulnerable to a call to oust Johnson from parliament once and for all. The South Oxfordshire Council is already one of the party targets in the local elections in Mays, where it is fighting to gain overall control.

If Boris Johnson thinks making a chicken coop in Henley will help save his neck, he has something else to come, a party source has said. It would show how much Johnson and other Tory MPs take Blue Wall voters for granted. The Liberal Democrats have already shown that we can beat the Conservatives to their old heart. We have a strong ground campaign in Oxfordshire and we will fight tooth and nail to oust Boris Johnson from parliament once and for all.

It is still possible that Johnson could be forced to seek another seat if he is ousted from Uxbridge following a parliamentary inquiry into his Partygate claims. The former prime minister is under investigation into whether he misled MPs about Downing St parties and has already faced bruising from the privileges committee looking into the matter.

If parliament votes to suspend him from the House of Commons for more than 10 days, his constituents will have the opportunity to recall him as an MP and replace him in a by-election. However, he would be free to run again in the by-election or seek another seat.

Some of Johnson’s allies have also privately speculated that it would be best to move to Mid Bedfordshire, the constituency soon to be vacated by Nadine Dorries, one of his most loyal supporters.

Dorries is widely expected to be named a peer in Johnson’s resignation honors list, which has yet to be released. His seat is one of the safest conservatives.

A spokesman for the former prime minister said: Boris Johnson is standing in Uxbridge and South Ruislip in the upcoming general election and was recently re-selected as the Tory candidate there.

Johnson has spent his time since leaving office earning millions of pounds from speeches and appearances, as well as receiving a big advance for his memoir. His last appearance was in Lagos, Nigeria, where he joked that he had actually been fined in the Partygate scandal for getting up and having lunch at his desk for 20 minutes. Johnson received income, hospitality and donations worth over $5 million in the first six months after leaving office.