Post-election “rebounds” do not produce results, according to a major real estate agency

Waiting to put a property on the market until after the next general election in a bid to secure a higher price could prove a risky strategy, research from Winkworth reveals.

Search for analysts Data capcommissioned by Winkworthexamined price changes before and after the six general elections since May 1997.

INCREASED PRICES

Using Cadastre According to figures shown by the study in the three months leading up to the December 2019 election, prices rose by 4.2% in the UK.

Three months after the election the price rise was just 0.7% and in central London the change in price growth was -9.4%. Prices rose by almost the same percentage before Tony Blair's victory in 1997 as before Boris Johnson's victory in 2019.

Prices continued to rise in the three months following the election.

Only in the 2005, 2010 and 2017 elections did price growth exceed the previous period. In the remaining four elections, prices continued to rise in the three months following the election, but at a slower rate.

According to research, pre-election uncertainty has a short-term impact, slowing the number of sales in the three to four months leading up to Election Day. This trend is true for six of the last seven elections. Once the election result is known, the increased certainty about the political landscape and policies will normally allow markets to regain momentum.

RISKY STRATEGY

According to the Datalofts report: Waiting to put a property on the market until after an election, in hopes of getting a much higher price, could be a risky strategy.

Dominic Agace, Winkworth

Speaking on the Winkworths Property Exchange podcast, Dominic Agace, managing director of Winkworths, said: The biggest growth in house prices occurred when Blair was in power.

“We have seen a 48% increase per day in the average house price, which is contrary to popular belief that the Thatcher era saw the greatest growth thanks to Right to Buy.

He adds: Politicians push policies to win votes and politics can be more extreme than the reality of what happens once a party is in power. In 2019 there was a binary choice between Corbyn and Johnson. From a property perspective, building builders would probably prefer to see a Labor government, which must be a first.

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