Politics
Most think Trump is probably guilty of crime as his New York trial nears end, CBS News poll finds
As Donald Trump's trial in New York nears closing arguments, most Americans believe he is guilty of a crime in the case. But they are less sure what the jury will do after its deliberations next week.
Fifty-six percent — a majority — say Trump is definitely or probably guilty of a crime in this case, in which he was accused of falsifying business records to hide a “hush money” payment and influence the 2016 elections.
Opinions are very partisan, with almost all Democrats thinking Trump is guilty and about eight in ten Republicans saying the opposite. Republicans are less sure of their point of view. While three in four Democrats say he is “definitely” guilty, only half of Republicans say he is “definitely” not.
The public is more divided on what they think the jury will decide, with about half expecting jurors to find Trump guilty and the other half saying the opposite. And the opinions on both sides are far from certain. For example, far more jurors say they will “probably” convict Trump than “definitely” will convict him.
If people believe Trump is guilty, they tend to believe the jury will convict him. And vice versa for those who think he is not guilty of any crime. But about a third of each group expects the jury to decide the opposite of what they themselves believe.
Overall, about three-quarters of Americans say they have heard or read at least a few articles about the trial. And those who say they've heard “a lot” about him are the most polarized in their opinions: They are more likely to identify as strong supporters and express more confidence in Trump's guilt or innocence, which could lessen the impact of a verdict on public opinion. .
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 1,402 adult U.S. residents surveyed between May 14 and 21, 2024. Data includes an oversample in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, in Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census of the American Community and Current Population Survey, as well as past votes . The margin of error is ±4.4 points.
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