A poll risk for Trump

Polls have given Donald Trump an edge for eight straight months, but there's a sign his advantage may not be as stable as it seems: His lead is based on gains from voters who don't care much attention to politics, who do not follow traditional rules. news and who do not vote regularly.

Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate determine poll results and the story of the election.

President Biden has actually led the last three New York Times/Siena national polls among those who voted in the 2020 election, although he lags among registered voters overall. And looking at recent years, almost all of Trump's gains have come from these less engaged voters.

It is important to note that these low-turnout voters often come from Democratic districts. Many support Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate. But in our poll, Biden wins only three-quarters of Democratic-leaning voters who didn't vote last cycle, even though almost all high-turnout Democratic-leaning voters continue to support him.

This trend illustrates the disconnect between Trump's lead in the polls and Democrats' victories in low-turnout special elections. And that helps explain Trump's gains among young, nonwhite voters, who tend to be among the least engaged.

Trump's reliance on these voters could soon make the race more volatile. As voters tune in over the next six months, it's possible that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters will return to their usual partisan leanings. Alternatively, they could stay home, which could also help Biden.

How they are different

It’s not just that less engaged voters pay less attention. The Times/Siena data suggests they have distinct political views and get their political information from different sources.

In battleground states, Democratic-leaning swing voters are much less likely to identify as liberal. They are less likely to talk about abortion and democracy and more likely to worry about the economy. They overwhelmingly rate the economy as poor or just fair, while most of their high-participation counterparts rate it as good or excellent.

An important factor could be media consumption. While Biden holds almost all of his support from voters who consume traditional national media, newspapers, television networks and others, the disengaged are much more likely to say they get their news from social media. Biden defectors are concentrated in this group. (A TikTok analysis found nearly twice as many pro-Trump posts on the platform as pro-Biden posts since November.)

Low turnout rates also pose a challenge for pollsters. Although millions of them will undoubtedly be there in November, no one knows exactly how many of them will ultimately show up, much less which exactly will. This is always a challenge for pollsters. But in this cycle, if enough of them stay home, Biden could do much better on Election Day than polls suggest.

Who will ultimately vote?

If there are two consecutive elections with the same turnout, we can assume that the same people vote each time. That's not how it works.

There is a lot more churn among the electorate than people think. Even if turnout remains the same, millions of former voters will stay home and be replaced by millions who stayed home last time.

Historically, about 25 percent of presidential voters did not vote in the previous presidential election. This is partly due to newly registered voters, who typically vote in upcoming elections (and who may have already voted in another state). But it's also because about 30 to 40 percent of former registrants who didn't participate in the last elections ultimately run in the next elections.

There is good reason to expect fewer voters in 2024 than in recent cycles, as the 2020 election was the highest turnout election in a century. But if you think that means there won't be many new voters, you're already wrong: In fact, 10% of registered non-voters in 2020 have already turned out and voted in the mid-term elections. 2022 mandate, relatively weak. The usual churn rate is already at work.

Still, Trump's strength among nonvoters means the exact number of new voters could be decisive. And the exact choice of new voters could also be crucial. In recent years, Democrats have enjoyed a hidden advantage in turnout, a tendency of Democrats who vote to be more anti-Trump than those who stay home.

With this in mind, Democrats can hope that the November election will attract a disproportionate group of irregular anti-Trump voters to the polls. The signs of this have been seen once again in recent Times polls from the battleground.

Of course, it's unlikely that disengaged and irregular voters have already made solid plans for November. They have plenty of time to decide or change their minds about who they might vote for and whether or not they will vote.

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Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/briefing/a-polling-risk-for-trump.html The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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