One year in prison but still a dominant figure in the opposition

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There is no indication that Imran Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, will be released in the near future.

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has now been behind bars for a year, although at times he is barely noticeable.

Mr Khan remains the dominant force in Pakistan’s political opposition; his name is still in the press and on the benches of the courts. His supporters on social media are unwavering.

In the absence of public appearances, the few people allowed to see the former cricket star regularly, his lawyers and family, have become his conduits for messages to the outside world. They are keen to convey the message that his 365 days behind bars have left him unyielding.

“He still has a certain self-confidence,” says Aleema Khanum, Imran Khan's sister. “He has no needs, no wants, just a cause to fight for.”

According to his visitors, Mr. Khan spends his days on his exercise bike, reading and thinking. He has an hour a day to walk around the yard. There have been occasional disagreements over how quickly the family can provide him with new books.

He said: “I'm not wasting a minute of my time in prison, this is an opportunity for me to gain more knowledge,” Ms Khanum told the BBC.

But the fact is that Mr Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi are still stuck in prison, with no sign of their imminent release.

According to some, this is not a surprise.

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Mr Khan served as Prime Minister of Pakistan for four years.

Mr. Khan was not expected to do anything that would get him out of prison easily, said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington.

And the military, Pakistan's powerful and discreet actor, does not let up when it decides it wants to put a political figure in jail, Kugelman says. That is particularly true in Khan's case.

The military has indeed played a key role in many of Mr Khan's ups and downs over the past decade. Many analysts believe it was his early close relationship with the military establishment that helped him rise to power.

But by May 9, all that was in tatters. Mr. Khan, who had been ousted from power by a no-confidence vote in 2022, had been arrested and his supporters had come out to protest.

Some of the protests have turned violent and military buildings have been attacked, including the official residence of the army's top official in Lahore, which was looted and set on fire.

BBC sources said Pakistani media had been ordered to stop showing his picture, saying his name or broadcasting his voice.

Mr Khan was released, but only for a few months.

He was jailed again on August 5 for failing to properly declare the sale of state gifts – and that was just the beginning.

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Mass protests have been held demanding the release of Mr Khan and his wife from prison

As the election approached, the accusations against him multiplied; by early February, just days before the vote, the 71-year-old had already been sentenced to three lengthy prison terms, the last to 14 years.

By the time of the election, many candidates from Mr Khan's PTI party were also in jail or on the run, with the party stripped of its well-known symbol, a cricket bat – a key identifier in a country where the literacy rate is 58%.

Despite this, we were determined and wanted to make a statement, says Salman Akram Raja, Mr Khan's lawyer and a candidate in the election.

It was very stressful, many were unable to campaign at all. The loss of the symbol of the cricket bat was the biggest blow.

All candidates ran as independents, but hopes – even within the party – were not high.

However, Imran Khan's backed candidates won more seats than others, forcing his political rivals to form an alliance to block them. The PTI, meanwhile, had to fight for most of its seats in court, alleging that the results were rigged.

Supporters see the Feb. 8 election as a turning point, proof of Mr. Khan's powerful message — even from behind bars.

There is a change that has manifested itself on February 8, Aleema Khanum said. Change is coming, it is in the air.

Others say that in practice the result has not changed the status quo.

We are definitely where you would expect to be given precedent, Kugelman says.

The PTI has not formed a government, its leader remains in prison and the ruling coalition is led by military-backed parties.

But more recently, things seem to be looking up for Mr Khan and his supporters.

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Mr Khan's imprisonment has caused a political and media sensation in Pakistan.

The three sentences handed down just before the election were overturned, a United Nations panel said his detention was arbitrary and Pakistan's Supreme Court declared that the PTI was an official party and should be given “reserve seats”; seats reserved for women and non-Muslims would be allocated based on the proportion of seats won by the party.

But none of these measures have yet had any practical impact: Mr Khan remains in prison with new cases against him, and the reserve seats have yet to be allocated.

His wife Bushra Bibi, whose prison sentence was overturned when the case that declared their marriage illegal was appealed, also remains in prison on new charges.

The government, meanwhile, has made clear that it views Mr. Khan and his party as a public threat. It announced earlier this month that it would seek to ban the PTI, despite warnings from groups including the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan.

The military does not seem to have changed its mind. On May 9, 2011, its public relations department declared in a statement that it would not compromise with the planners, facilitators and executioners and would not be allowed to circumvent the law.

And it is this relationship with the military that most analysts believe Mr Khan really needs to improve if he is to finally escape prison.

“I think we can find an arrangement that gives everyone an out and allows the system to work,” said Khan's lawyer, Mr. Raja.

Meanwhile, from prison, Mr Khan has been sending his own messages. Aleema Khanum recently said he had asked the military to “remain neutral to let this country run itself” and called it “the backbone of Pakistan”.

Some commentators have seen this as an olive branch, although the use of the term neutral has been revived; when the army had previously declared itself neutral by not taking sides in politics, he had ridiculed the phrase as “only an animal is neutral”.

His recent call for early elections is a move some see as one of his conditions for leaving the military.

“I don't think that's very realistic,” Mr. Kugelman said. In time, Khan might give in a bit. It's one of the truisms of Pakistani politics: If you want to be prime minister, you have to be in the good graces, or at least not in the bad graces, of the military.

For now at least, the impasse persists.

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