Has the “end of history” already begun?

A few decades ago, the world seemed to be moving toward democracy and political stability. Today, we are witnessing a rise in authoritarianism and global instability. How concerned should we be?

A year after the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, American political theorist Francis Fukuyama published a book titled “The End of History” in which he argued that with the spread of Western liberal democracy, humanity had reached the end of history.

It was not just about turning the page on a chapter of post-war history, the Cold War from 1947 to 1991, but about the end of history as such: that is, the final point of the ideological evolution of humanity and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the ultimate form of human government.

It is difficult to assess the extent to which this book, described at the time as a bombshell, influenced Western policymakers. But many Western leaders, taking advantage of what has been called the peace dividend, began to reduce their military strength.

Fukuyama's argument comes at a time of great optimism about the future because of a confluence of events that ended an era of tension: the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the opening of China to capitalism.

But history took a different course.

Nightmarish scenarios are unfolding

Three decades after the story ended, Fukuyama, now a professor at Stanford University, warns that the current combination of geopolitical forces could lead to the ultimate nightmare.

In a 2022 interview with the British magazine The New Statesman, he listed elements of this nightmare as China's support for Russia's war against Ukraine and Beijing's invasion of Taiwan.

This would mean, he said, that we would actually be living in a world dominated by these undemocratic powers. If the United States and the rest of the West could not prevent this, then it would really be the end of the end of history.

One of the nightmare scenarios became reality on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Since then, Russia and China have forged close ties, much to the chagrin of the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance, or NATO, whose 32 members met in Washington in July 2024 and issued a stark warning to Beijing to stop helping Russia in its war against Ukraine.

The Limits of Economic Warfare

U.S. and European officials say Chinese machine tools, semiconductors and other dual-use parts have become essential to Russian arms industries.

A lengthy statement released after the meeting, held to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO's founding, called China a key enabler of Russia's war against Ukraine, said it had helped fuel the largest war in recent European history and called for repercussions.

There is already a vast network of Western trade bans and restrictions, and it is unclear how much additional pressure the West might apply. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have consistently ignored Western concerns about their close relationship, claiming it is a bulwark against American dominance.

In the superpower rivalry between the United States and China, Chinese leaders regularly mock the notion of universal values ​​advocated by the West, portraying them as a smokescreen for a new type of imperialism.

Returning to Fukuyama's ultimate nightmare, there is only one element missing: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing considers a breakaway province. China has not ruled out using military force to bring the island, located 100 miles from the Chinese mainland, under Beijing's control.

Just three weeks after the NATO meeting in Washington, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te presided over the largest gathering of foreign parliamentarians and dignitaries ever held in Taiwan. The meeting brought together representatives from 23 member countries of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC).

The group promotes democracy and monitors Chinese threats to the island, the world's top producer of semiconductor chips used in everything from your cellphone to the drones used by both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war.

All-out war over semiconductors?

Taiwan's market share in the global industry is estimated at around 68%, and one company, TSMC, makes nearly 90% of the most advanced chips used for artificial intelligence and quantum computing applications.

With China, like the United States and its allies, in need of such chips, Taiwan's dominant position has been called a silicon shield against Chinese attacks. There are fears that key factories, such as TSMC, could be damaged or disabled if invading forces tried to seize them by force.

Taiwan has such a head start in manufacturing ultra-advanced chips that it will take years for competitors to catch up, experts say.

Chinese semiconductor companies manufacture only about 6 percent of the country's semiconductor needs, according to estimates by the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank focused on global peace issues.

None of them can make the cutting-edge chips that are essential to President Xi Jinping's stated ambition to make his country a technological competitor to the United States by mid-century.

Does this mean that the ultimate nightmare will only take place in a few decades? Probably. But keep in mind that long-term forecasts are often wrong. Just ask Fukuyama.