Turkey vows to undermine NATO

Trump has consistently told his American base that NATO members scam us and has promised to reduce U.S. security commitments to its allies in Europe. Erdoğan is acutely aware that NATO will become less beneficial to Turkey if Trump cuts U.S. funding and security guarantees. His calculation that this reality could come to pass after the November U.S. elections emboldens him to act brazenly and make unpopular demands, a trend that has continued since Turkey’s outsized role in NATO. dilatory Sweden's membership application. Between 2022 and 2023, Turkey slowed down Finland and Sweden's accession to the NATO alliance, mainly due to Erdoan's imposition of a what for what:Unless Washington approves sale of F-16 fighter jets to TurkeyTurkey would delay NATO expansion indefinitely. Erdoğan’s request disrupted the alliance’s plans, which directly benefited Russia. Erdoğan’s rude treatment of NATO demonstrated to NATO’s friends and foes that the alliance was rife with discord.

Alliances beyond NATO

Erdoan has presented Ankara's growing proximity to NATO rivals, particularly Russia and China, as an asset for the alliance and a means of brokering peace in several key regions. While Turkey and Russia often find themselves at odds, opposite In the conflicts in Ukraine, the Caucasus, Syria and Libya, Erdogan has done everything possible to maintain a cordial relationship with President Vladimir Putin and position himself as a potential candidate. mediator.

Beyond resolving the conflict, Turkey has sought to deepen its ties with countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the economic alliance The BRICSboth seen as growing rivals to NATO and the G7 countries. Just days before arriving in Washington for the NATO summit, Erdoan was in Kazakhstan for the SCO Summitsignaling Turkey's desire to be promoted to permanent membership. On the sidelines of the summit, Erdoan encounter with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin.

The comparison between Erdoan’s maneuvers in Kazakhstan and his brazen and undermining behavior at the NATO summit is striking. Turkey’s accelerated pursuit of membership in these blocs may be, in part, an emotional reaction to EU accession negotiations are currently at a standstillbut it is also representative of Erdoan's changing worldview. He has publicly said that the world's economic centre of gravity is shifting eastwards and critical The limited Western perception of Russia and China as enemies. Turkey seeks to be a major player in a multipolar world rather than a state confined and defined by the political and economic demands of Western powers.

Turkey can count on NATO for its security today, but it is also investing in its future by creating contingency plans in case the strength of the West and NATO is eclipsed by Russia, China and the emergence of the Global South.

Endangering NATO security

Ankara’s hesitations give alliance members plenty of reason to worry, but there are also even more glaring examples of Turkish behavior that NATO simply cannot tolerate. Turkey’s hardened anti-Israel stance is not simply a political issue on which Turkey and the rest of NATO disagree. Erdoğan has given Turkey a mission to materially support Hamas, an organization that other NATO members broadly classify as a terrorist organization.

Turkey's explicit support for Hamas is not a new problem. In 2011, Erdoğan invited the organization to open offices in Turkey. October 7 terrorist attack In Israel, where more than 1,200 Israeli civilians have been killed, Erdoan has only increased his rhetorical praise for the group and increased the scale of support.

Turkey is complicit in the escalation of violence against Israel. On July 21, Israel’s internal security service, the Shin Bet, foiled a terrorist attack that it identified as being directed by Turkey. Five students from Birzeit University in the West Bank, affiliated with a student group called Kutla Islamia, acquired weapons and money with the intention of assassinating Israeli citizens. Although Israel’s foreign minister drew attention to the attack, sentenced After the attack and Turkey's role in it, no other Israeli ally followed suit.

In September 2023, Israeli customs authorities revealed Israeli authorities said they had intercepted 16 tons of explosive materials coming from Turkey and heading for the Gaza Strip two months earlier. In December 2023, Israeli customs foiled another attempt by Turkish affiliates to smuggle thousands of weapons parts into the West Bank.

Turkey's approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict cannot be seen as an ideological break with NATO members; rather, it is a blatant example of a NATO member defending and promoting the violent interests of a terrorist entity.

A similar pattern can be observed in Syria, where Turkey has deliberately Ankara’s attacks on Syrian forces have undermined the objectives of Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR), a mission led by the United States and its coalition partners to degrade and eliminate the Islamic State (ISIS). Ankara has targeted and conducted military strikes against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), accusing them of being terrorists bent on attacking Turkey. On several occasions, the Turkish military has strikes nearly hit U.S. military personnel helping the SDF.

Instead of participating in the OIR's counterterrorism mission to eliminate ISIS, Erdoan chose to rebuke his treaty allies. He criticized the mission and said It is not in line with the spirit of the alliance that the leaders of terrorist organizations that pose a threat to Turkey's national security are accepted as legitimate actors. It should be noted that the SDF has played a vital role in combating the inhumane violence and expansion carried out by ISIS, and there is no evidence that it is affiliated with terrorism.

Privately, many NATO leaders are not only concerned about Turkey’s position on the major security challenges facing the alliance; they are outraged. But that does not help them. It seems that the alliance has chosen to prioritize avoiding a public spectacle over confronting Ankara.

Turkey’s reluctance to hold the country accountable is partly understandable. NATO was created to counter the systemic threat posed by the Soviet Union. It does not have developed mechanisms to counter internal threats posed by member states. From acquiring Russian missiles to delaying NATO expansion, Ankara is operating in uncharted territory by constantly transgressing established norms and boundaries. This trajectory must be halted.

Given the multiplicity of threats facing the Alliance, it is now more important than ever to ensure that its members are on the same page. In practice, this means that the Alliance must define what we collectively mean by strategic threats, how we define terrorist actors, and what responsibilities come with membership. NATO’s cohesion and operational capabilities, as the most effective military alliance, cannot and must not be undermined by the actions of a single member. It is high time to stand up to Erdoan.

Sinan Ciddi is a non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to the FDD.Türkiye ProgramAndCenter on Economic and Financial Power(CEFP). Sophia Epley is an intern at FDD and a student at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. For more analysis from Sinan and Sophia, please subscribeHERE. Follow Sinan on X@SinanCiddi. Follow FDD on X@FDDFDD is a nonpartisan research institute based in Washington, DC, focused on national security and foreign policy.