Prabowo Puts the “i” in Foreign Policy

Indonesia on path to political transition under current defense minister Prabowo Subiantos Following his inauguration on October 20, speculation is rife about the foreign policy themes the new president might bring to the job. Will Prabowo continue the approach inherited from President Joko Widodo? Or will he make a radical departure from his predecessor?

Both are likely, in my opinion.

Prabowo will devote himself more to international affairs and take a personal approach to foreign policy, with active presidential engagement. This will mark a radical departure from Jokowi, who, with a few exceptions, was more focused on his domestic life.

But on the whole, Probowo will maintain a pragmatic position towards the major powers, close to Jokowi's approach.

Prabowo began his presidential campaign with a pledge to continue Jokowi's policies and build on his legacy. Prabowo named Jokowi's son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his running mate, earning him the president's support in the campaign. Prabowo has pledged to implement Jokowi's flagship policies, including industrial downstream, infrastructure developmentand the relocation of the capital of Borneo.

To carry out these programs, however, Prabowo must convince major investors, particularly China, to finance the projects. He also wants to continue the Modernization of Indonesia's defense sector.

But Prabowo brings his own way of doing foreign policy. And it's already showing.

Prabowo appears to be interested in resolving tensions through active engagement at the leadership level, rather than strengthening regional or international institutions.

After winning the February elections, Prabowo made several trips abroad. For example, in April, he made a series of visits to China, Japan and Malaysia, In his capacity as defense minister and president-elect, he met with President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, among others, and discussed economic and defense cooperation with Indonesia.

He followed with another tour, in May, in the Middle East, He met with several regional leaders to underscore Indonesia's commitment to resolving the Gaza conflict through peacekeeping forces. He then spoke at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore and met with some world leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

More recently, he also visited France, Serbia, Turkey and Russia, and met with the leaders of these countries to discuss bilateral cooperation, including President Vladimir Putin.

The visits marked Prabowo's personal style of foreign policy, in which he favors face-to-face bilateral meetings with leaders. Jokowi's more discreet approachin which he employs multilateralism, less engagement at the presidential level and a delegation to Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi.

This personalist approach is not surprising for Prabowo. During a presidential debate at CSIS Indonesia in November 2023, Prabowo described what he called good neighbourly foreign policyHe believes that Indonesia should continue its policy of non-alignment towards the great powers, which is a constant theme in Indonesian foreign policy tradition.

However, Prabowo also expressed his belief that Indonesia should maintain good relations with other countries to preserve world peace.

Different from Jokowi, Prabowo seems to be less enthusiastic about the Association of Southeast Asian Nationsthe 11-nation group spanning Southeast Asia, of which Indonesia is the largest member. Although he mentioned the importance of engaging with Southeast Asian neighbors, Prabowo did not explicitly consider ASEAN as a key player, focusing instead on engagement with the United States and China. ASEAN also did not feature in Prabowo's campaign manifesto, which was heavily dominated by defense modernization and national security interests.

For his part, Jokowi described ASEAN as the cornerstone of Indonesia's foreign policy.

This diminished enthusiasm for ASEAN, together with his vision of a good-neighbor policy and his active personal engagement even before his inauguration as president, provide an early signal of Prabowo’s approach to international affairs. Prabowo seems interested in resolving tensions through active engagement at the leadership level, rather than strengthening regional or international institutions. But he would still maintain his pragmatic approach to dealing with major and major powers as part of his active engagement abroad.

A personalist approach could also make Prabowo's foreign policy unpredictable.

This could be good news for Australia. Canberra should not expect Prabowo to radically change the direction that Jokowi has charted for Indonesia-Australia relations. Even if Australia brings economic and security benefits to Indonesia, Prabowo will be keen to continue a constructive dialogue.

Indeed, Prabowo is expected to sign a defence pact with Australia end of August, with a visit to Australia planned this month.

But a personalist approach could also make Prabowo's foreign policy unpredictable, sometimes slow given the scale of the problems to be solved, and there could be gaps between his active engagement abroad and leadership at the ministerial level. This could affect the evolution of diplomatic relations.

Prabowo’s style makes it difficult to predict how Indonesia might engage with China in particular. It is likely that Prabowo will remain open to Chinese investment, particularly if China funds Indonesia’s ambitious development projects. But that relationship will be determined at the highest levels.

Australia should not expect Indonesia to take a tough stance on China, or to abandon its policy of non-alignment in the event of US-China tensions. It can, however, expect a more active Indonesia, willing to engage with many partners, and to use that willingness to forge better relationships, at least at the leadership level.