Narendra Modi is starting to lose battles

For several In India, the result of the June general election was a stunning repudiation of Narendra Modi, the prime minister. But to hear him tell it, it was not. He insists that despite his party’s crushing loss of parliamentary majority, which forced him to rely on coalition partners, the vote was for continuity. He has made virtually no changes to his cabinet since forming a minority government. In public, he has doubled down on his promises to make India a developed nation by 2047, the centenary of its independence. And so has his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).BJP) is campaigning for the upcoming regional elections on a familiar platform of development and Hindu nationalism.

The new government also says it is on track to finalize a plan for its first 100 days, which Mr. Modi and his ministers began drafting early in the campaign. Mr. Modi has ordered all ministries to report on their progress, details of which are expected to be released on Sept. 17, the 100th day of his third term and also his birthday. He is likely to approve $39 billion in infrastructure projects, expand an affordable housing program and launch a new national pension scheme.

On the surface, Modi 3.0 looks a lot like his first two terms. But a closer look reveals that a significant shift is taking place. Mr. Modi’s new government has indeed withdrawn a series of politically significant initiatives under pressure from an emboldened opposition and lobby groups. India’s courts have also proven themselves in challenging the government or the power. BJP in a number of high-profile cases. And even within his own political camp, Mr Modi faces demands to adjust his leadership style, as well as some of his policies.

Other dangers loom on the horizon. BJP The country faces tough elections in five states scheduled over the next six months. One of them, in Jammu and Kashmir, which begins on September 18, is the first since Mr. Modi scrapped the semi-autonomous status of Muslim-majority regions in 2019. BJP The opposition may struggle to retain control of Haryana, where elections will be held on October 5, and Maharashtra, where elections are likely to be held in November. The opposition, meanwhile, is expected to retain Jharkhand and Delhi in elections scheduled for January and February, respectively.

For Mr. Modi’s supporters, his recent record is a testament to strong leadership. They say he has learned from the election result and is willing to consult more broadly even as he pushes forward with his reform agenda. He is still popular, they add, and deserves to be hailed as the first Indian politician to win three consecutive terms as prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru in the 1950s and 1960s. BJP It controls far more seats in parliament than its main national rival, the Congress party, while leading coalition governments from 2004 to 2014.

But can Modi really transform from strongman to consensus builder? He has never had to share power before. During his campaign, he suggested he might be of divine birth and sidelined many political allies. Hence the unusual public criticism recently by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the Hindu nationalist organization from which the BJP And even if he succeeds in the transition, a more collaborative approach could force him to abandon some promised reforms and offer costly aid.

The Compromise Candidate

Mr. Modi could still harness consultative government, which would allow him to craft better policies, says Rahul Verma of the Centre for Policy Research, a Delhi think tank. But the results will be slower. And early signs suggest that he has not yet fully adapted: he could, for example, have consulted more widely on recently withdrawn initiatives before proposing them. But failure to adapt could lead to further electoral losses, or even a challenge to Mr. Modi’s leadership from within.

One of the government’s first setbacks came in early August, when it referred a bill on Muslim charitable foundations to a joint parliamentary committee. This was remarkable, as Mr. Modi has rammed most legislation through parliament over the past decade. The opposition and Muslim leaders denounced the bill as an infringement on religious freedom. More tellingly, one of Mr. Modi’s key coalition partners also supported the referral to the committee.

Shortly after, there was a You– launch a draft broadcasting services bill. The government released a draft in November, aimed at strengthening regulation of digital and other media. A strengthened version was then circulated among stakeholders in July, but was abruptly withdrawn in mid-August after many stakeholders objected. They feared it would stifle social media platforms such as YouTube, now widely used by Mr. Modi’s critics. A new draft could not come out for two years, the people said.

On August 20, the government withdrew an advertisement for candidates to fill senior civil service positions. The advertisement was part of Modi’s push to bring expertise into government. But it also caused an uproar because no positions were reserved for lower caste Hindus and other minorities, as is typically the case in the bureaucracy under an affirmative action program. The episode has sparked renewed calls for a national caste census, whose demands the opposition widely supported in the general election. BJP has long opposed such an exercise, but could prepare another one You-turn: the RSS On September 2, Americans expressed support for a caste census for the first time.

This might appease some lower-caste voters, but it could alienate upper-caste Hindus, many of whom are BJP If a caste census is conducted, its results could be prejudicial BJP Modi’s claims of greater social mobility also come at the expense of his public image as a muscular, infallible leader. “We are done with Modi psychologically,” Rahul Gandhi, the opposition leader, said on September 4. “I sit across from him in Parliament and I know his confidence is gone.”

On September 13, the Supreme Court granted bail to Arvind Kerjiwal, Delhi’s chief minister and leader of an opposition party. This will allow him to contest Delhi elections more aggressively. It is also the latest step by the court to rein in the investigative agencies that have targeted several opposition leaders. Mr. Kejriwal was arrested in March on corruption charges that he says are politically motivated.

Although Indian courts remain susceptible to government pressure, the Supreme Court has also been tougher on other politically charged cases. In July, it blocked three cases BJP– banned states from requiring shops and restaurants along a Hindu pilgrimage route to display the names of their owners (a policy clearly aimed at Muslim owners). In September, the court also warned state governments against demolishing the properties of people accused of crimes before they are sentenced. Such demolitions often target Muslims. BJP-Governed states.

As for Modi’s 100-day plan, it did indeed achieve many of its goals. But he had to adjust several parts of it after the election result. One was the omission of a proposal to privatize at least two state-owned enterprises. That proposal apparently met with opposition from some in the coalition. He also added new details, including a revision of the program for recruiting soldiers for fixed four-year terms. That program was designed to reduce pension costs, which absorb more than a fifth of military spending. But it was detested by recruits, who were previously committed for at least 15 years with a full pension. Another partner in Modi’s coalition has demanded a revision.

None of this bodes well for disaster for Mr. Modi. He is still early in his career, and he has scored some important victories, quickly concluding government-formation talks with his coalition partners and then revising his budget to allocate more money to job creation. India remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy: On September 3, the World Bank raised its growth forecast. GDP The forecast for the current fiscal is 6.6% to 7%. Nevertheless, Modi 3.0 clearly needs more than continuity. It also demands compromise.