Chinese watch US election but don't see much hope for better relations

By Simone McCarthy, CNN

Hong Kong (CNN) — The winner of US presidential election could have a considerable impact on the contentious relations between the world's two largest economies and rival powers.

But in Chinawhere electoral information is filtered through heavily censored social and state networks, the emphasis has been placed more on spectacle than on substance, with the feeling that no matter who wins, the tensions of US-China relationship will remain.

For us ordinary Chinese, whoever becomes president of the United States, whether candidate A or candidate B, is the same, Li Shuo, a Beijing resident, told CNN as the opening of the elections approaches.

This could be explained in part by the consensus in China, among policymakers and ordinary citizens, that the die is cast for a US administration that wants to coerce countries. China rises on the world stagewhether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins.

Trump's last term saw the Republican impose tariffs on hundreds of billions of Chinese products, launch a campaign against the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei and use racist language to describe the virus causing Covid-19, first identified in China.

The last four years under Joe Biden's presidency have been marked by a change in tone and efforts to stabilize communication. But US concern about the threat China poses to its national security has only intensified, with the arrival of Biden. targeting Chinese technology industries with investment and export controls, as well as the prices, while seeming to circumvent Longstanding U.S. policy in how it has expressed support for Taiwan is a matter of redlining in relations with Beijing, which claims the self-governing island democracy as its own.

Meanwhile, the Chinese saw their economic outlook darkens as the country has struggled to fully rebound from its strict pandemic controls amid a broader slowdown and housing market crisis, among other challenges.

So while presidential campaigns continue to feature in daily media coverage and online discussions in China, interest in the candidates and their policies appears subdued compared to previous U.S. elections.

(It) doesn't matter who (who wins), wrote one social media user in a popular comment on China's X-rated platform Weibo. Their containment of China will not be made easier.

Watch the turmoil

As the campaigns unfolded in recent months, Beijing's state media focused on social discord and polarization in the United States.

In recent days, the main message under the US election hashtag on Weibo has been about US concerns about possible post-election violence. The message, written by a branch of state broadcaster CCTV, cites investigative data from US media.

A recent cartoon An excerpt from an article from state newspaper China Daily carried in national media shows the Statue of Liberty being crushed in the jaws of a dragon described as political violence.

In the United States, all circles are very nervous and public opinion is in turmoil, journalists from the official Xinhua news agency wrote in a statement. recent sendingwho also noted that as political polarization and divisions in public opinion have intensified in this year's US elections, political violence has also intensified.

A Xinhua-affiliated magazine also described the elections as hopeless, ultimately being decided by invisible forces of power, such as Wall Street.

Some nationalist bloggers have posted videos and articles sometimes gleefully promoting what they describe as the potential for post-election American civil war rhetoric that echoes in discussions on the social media platform Weibo, which is heavily censored and largely dominated by nationalist voices.

While echoing the real concerns reported by the American and international media in what has been controversial and violent election cycle in the United Statesthe media coverage and conversation seem intended to telegraph the superiority of China's political system. There, China's ruling Communist Party exercises an iron grip on political power and discourse.

But despite the media coverage, many in China have also closely observed the democratic process and noted the contrast with their own.

There is no perfect system, but at least they allow people to question them, one social media user said on Weibo.

Candidate of choice?

Both Harris and Trump are hot topics on Chinese social media platforms.

Harris seemed relatively unknown to Chinese social media users before becoming the Democratic candidate after Biden withdraws in July of the race.

Since then, numerous posts and videos on TikTok's sister video app Douyin have mocked the vice president, such as attacking her laughter, in keeping with what is often a chauvinistic tone on the platforms of Chinese social media and echoing her laughter. comments made by Trump himself.

Some published excerpts of Harris' speeches, however, have a positive spin. These highlight his middle-class origin and his rise to America's second-highest office, a contrast with today's China where the upper echelons are made up of men who often come from politically elite families. .

This is a real story about ordinary people, read a comment with hundreds of likes posted under a video with an excerpt from a recent Harris speech.

Trump has sometimes attracted ironic admiration on the Chinese Internet. As president, he earned the nickname Chuan Jianguoor Trump, the (Chinese) nation-builder, a joke to suggest that his isolationist foreign policy and divisive domestic agenda were helping Beijing overtake Washington on the world stage.

But after the tumult of the past eight years, Trump fever appears to have calmed.

People are not optimistic about these two candidates because their image and abilities cannot be compared with those of past figures, said Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. This is one reason why the Chinese public's level of interest in this election seems lower than in the previous two votes, he said.

The second, and perhaps more important, reason is that many believe that no matter who is elected, U.S.-China relations will not improve anyway, Wu told CNN. It is also an important backdrop.

View from the top

Whoever wins the U.S. race, Communist Party leaders likely expect strained relations to improve little, analysts say.

In the future, whether Harris or Trump becomes the next U.S. president, the continuity of U.S. policy toward China will almost certainly trump any potential major changes, said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University of China. Beijing.

Beijing is careful not to comment directly on opinions on the elections, but he probably sees trump as bringing more uncertainty and therefore risk into the relationship. The former president threatened to tax all imports from China by up to 60% and is known for his volatile foreign policy.

But Beijing could see an advantage if it weakened American partnerships abroad, observers say. The Biden administration has sought to work more closely with allies in Europe and Asia to counter what it sees as the most serious long-term challenge to the Chinese international order, while Trump has questioned several times traditional American alliances.

Chinese leaders will also closely watch how a Trump presidency would handle the war in Ukraine, with Beijing likely wary of moves by him to improve relations between the United States, Russia and President Vladimir Putin, a key ally of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the world stage. The end of this war which Trump claimed he could quickly achieve It would also likely shift more U.S. attention to the Asia-Pacific, something China does not want to see.

But Trump is still seen in Beijing political circles as likely to have more strained relations with China than Harris would.

The vice president is expected to follow a similar path to that set by Biden in maintaining pressure on China to limit its technology and military development, while trying to keep some exchanges and dialogues open.

This means it will be a mix of tension, friction, and some limited degree of exchange and cooperation (whereas Trump would present greater challenges to US-China relations). The main problem is that (Trump) is handling US-China relations in an unconventional way, without any sense of proportion or boundaries, Wu said in Shanghai.

All that can be said is that the challenges of the relationship will vary depending on who is in power.

CNN's Nectar Gan contributed to this report.

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