Hope for a Türkiye-PKK détente still exists, despite the deadly attack | PKK news

Istanbul, Türkiye Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), was unlikely to walk through the Turkish parliament on October 1 and shake hands with politicians from a pro-Kurdish party, the DEM.

The leader of the MHP, a close ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been a virulent opponent of Kurdish demands for more rights. He called Kurdish politicians terrorists, accusing them of links to the PKK, an armed group listed as a terrorist organization by Turkey and the West. He also called for the DEM's predecessor to be banned.

The promise of new peace talks between Turkey and Kurdish fighters who have waged a 40-year rebellion was thrown into question last month after an attack on an aerospace factory near the capital Ankara.

Bahceli later said his gesture was a message of national unity and brotherhood.

A few weeks later, he raised the possibility that PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who has been serving a life sentence since 1999, could be paroled if he renounced violence and dissolved his organization.

And then, the very next day, on October 23, an attack on the aerospace and defense company TUSAS, which killed five people and left the two attackers dead, threatened to undo the small steps that had been taken.

TUSAS manufactures civil and military aircraft, including unmanned drones, which have played a crucial role in the fight against the PKK, which has been waging war against the Turkish state since the 1980s, as part of an effort to to demand more autonomy for the Kurds living in the south-east of Turkey.

The PKK claimed responsibility for the TUSAS attack two days later. Its statement said the raid was not linked to the latest political agenda but had been planned for a long time because TUSAS weapons have killed thousands of civilians, including children and women, in Kurdistan.

Historic Window of Opportunity

And yet, the attack may not sound the death knell for a possible rapprochement as some initially feared. Instead, there appear to be elements of an underlying desire on the part of both sides to seek a solution to a protracted conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people.

DEM quickly made it clear that it opposed the TUSAS attack, condemning it and saying that it was significant that it took place when Turkish society was talking about a solution and the possibility of a dialogue emerged.

Even after the attack, Erdogan himself described the developments as an unprecedented opportunity.

While welcoming Bahcelis' desire to focus on the right path in his October 30 speech, the president said: Those who read the MHP president's appeals in this context see a historic window of opportunity.

DEM is reportedly trying to establish a formal structure for peace negotiations involving senior officials from all political parties.

DEM party lawmaker Ibrahim Akin described Bahcelis' remarks about Öcalan as a sign of a new era and an indication of the government's approach.

However, there is still much that is uncertain and causes hesitation, he said. We want a transparent process to be carried out in which all parties and all political actors are involved.

Reasoning

Following the Ankara attack, Turkey launched a wave of airstrikes against the PKK in Iraq and Syria.

The group has run its operations in Turkey from the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq since the late 1990s. The Turkish military has severely curtailed PKK activities in Turkey in recent years through the establishment of dozens bases on the Iraqi side of the border and cross-border airstrikes.

In northeast Syria, Turkey has also targeted the PKK-affiliated People's Defense Units (YPG), which the United States has supported since 2015 in the fight against ISIL (ISIS), by providing them weapons and training. US support for the Kurdish armed group has strained Turkey's relations with the United States.

Even though Turkey does not recognize any separation between the PKK and the YPG, most Western states have refused to classify the latter on the list of terrorist groups. Speaking after the TUSAS attack, Erdogan said the two PKK attackers had entered Turkey from Syria, involving the YPG.

Some commentators see the reason behind the latest attempts at talks in Erdogan's desire to change Turkey's current constitution, which would not allow him to run for office again unless early elections are called.

The DEM, the third party in Parliament, could provide valuable support.

The ruling coalition will likely try to amend the constitution to remove the deadlines set by Erdogan, said Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul's Sabanci University. They probably want to split the opposition coalition and co-opt, if not directly the Kurdish political movement, then at least some Kurdish voters, particularly conservative Kurdish voters in southeastern Anatolia.

The idea of ​​an agreement between Erdogan's Turkish government and the PKK is not as far-fetched as it seems at first glance. Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) made strong efforts during its first years in power in the 2000s to grant more rights to Turkey's Kurds, who have long been a marginalized group. A peace process launched in 2013 sometimes seemed close to success before failing in 2015.

The current decision also comes at a time of extreme unrest in the Middle East. American support for Israel would have destabilized Kurdish groups, notably the PKK, which has historical links with Palestinian armed groups. DEM is very critical of Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

A second Donald Trump presidency would also likely see the withdrawal of US troops from Syria, removing protection from the YPG.

Esen said Turkey could take a preemptive step to fill the emerging political vacuum in the Middle East and move forward in the region.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the Ankara-based German Marshall Fund, said favorable conditions, including regional players preoccupied with other crises and a weakened PKK state, suggest an opportunity for progress.

However, he questions whether Öcalan, held incommunicado in recent years, retains enough influence over the PKK to lead the process.

Furthermore, there are limits to what the Turkish public can tolerate when it comes to talks with the PKK and Öcalan speaking in the Turkish parliament remains outside those limits, Unluhisarcikli added.

A poll conducted by the Institute for Social Studies on October 24 found that almost three-quarters of respondents were opposed to Öcalan's release. In a less scientific measure of public reaction, football fans at a Fenerbahçe match in Istanbul chanted insults at the PKK leader in the aftermath of the Ankara attack.