5 keys to a Trump victory

Donald Trump won more than 74 million votes in 2020, more than any Republican presidential candidate in history, but not enough to win the popular vote or the Electoral College.

The loss remains an obsession for the former president and many of his supporters, whose refusal to accept defeat led to a riot at the Capitol and animated political discourse for four years.

Only recently did Trump acknowledge that he lost by a narrow margin to President Joe Biden, although he quickly returned to repeated claims of election fraud that have been debunked at every turn.

Now, rather than the rematch he had sought with Biden, who abandoned his bid for a second term in July after a disastrous debate raised concerns about his health, Trump is having a battle with the vice-president. President Kamala Harris.

If the race is as close as polls suggest, the country may not know the results on election night. Here are five keys to a Trump victory.

Ground game bet pays off

Some of the most intense Republican concerns stem from nervousness about Trump's voting machine, which the campaign has largely outsourced to groups like Charlie Kirk's Turning Point Action and the Elon Musk-aligned US PAC. It's not hard to find a Republican consultant willing to have a hushed but panicked conversation about the lack of field offices once a data point becomes a sign of dominant force in battleground states .

There is a precision in identifying and mobilizing the voters a campaign must win, with bounties on low-propensity voters who can swing an election. And while Kirk and Musk are steadfast Trump allies, neither has experience implementing the kind of sophisticated stakeout operation that can win the White House. Musk's PAC brought in professionals, including veterans of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' unsuccessful bid for the GOP presidential nomination.

Here are five keys to a Harris victory

A botched door-to-door canvassing attempt could cost Trump the election. At this point, a stark signal of caution has emerged this week for Trump. Nine people linked to the Musk PAC described to NBC News an operation so rife with problems, including faulty data, that it could hurt former presidents' chances in battleground states decided by slim margins.

The blue wall is cracking

Speaking of those crucial battleground states, it seems like such a long time ago now, but there was a time when Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were solidly Democratic or at least Democratic-leaning in presidential elections.

All three supported Trump in 2016, the first time since the 1980s that they favored a Republican for the White House. Trump's demolition of the Democrats' blue wall was key to his victory that year. And Biden's repair four years later, when he won back all three, was key to Trump's 2020 defeat.

These three states are once again among the main battlegrounds, with polls showing ties. And even though Trump and Harris are equally focused on Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, it's hard to imagine that either could be elected without at least one, or even two, Blue Wall States.

Trump and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, have maintained a steady presence in the Big Three, and Vance was chosen in part because of his roots in a Midwest manufacturing town similar to those of Michigan and the Neighboring Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Trump is ending his campaign as he did in 2016 and 2020: with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

But Trump is also straying from the well-trodden battleground in recent days, making trips to New Mexico and Virginia, neither of which appear to be in play. Those decisions could haunt him if he turned out he could have better spent his time in, say, Wisconsin.

Nikki Haley voters remain loyal to Trump

The independent and moderate Republicans who responded to Haley's failed White House campaign make up a significant portion of the electorate. She received between 10% and 22% of the vote in several Republican primaries, even after ending her campaign.

Harris courted these middle voters heavily, boasting support from people like former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter, former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo. former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger; and former Rep. Fred Upton, R-Mich.

Trump apparently did little to keep these voters in the Republican Party tent. His rallies continue to be the subject of incendiary rhetoric that energizes the right wing of the party. At an event Thursday night in Arizona, Trump spoke about Liz Cheney in particularly harsh terms, telling the audience that the former congresswoman would not be a war hawk if guns were pointed in her face.

Although Haley has been vocal about her support for Trump while campaigning for other Republicans, there appear to be no plans at this time for her and the former president to campaign together. Without a last-minute boost, some Haley voters might stay home, vote for Harris or a third-party candidate or write in for someone else.

In a close race, this is not ideal for Trump.

Young men come forward

In a race that will likely be won by the margins, and in a race where a significant gender gap already exists, Trump's efforts to reach young men could give him an advantage.

An NBC News Stay Tuned/SurveyMonkey poll of Gen Z adults from August found that while young women favored Harris by 30 percentage points, young men favored Harris by just 4 points.

Recognizing this opportunity, Trump's team prioritized alternative media platforms popular with young men. In the final days of the campaign, Trump and Vance each interrupted their swing state schedule to land in Austin, Texas, and sit down for separate three-hour interviews with Joe Rogan, whose podcast has more than 17 million of YouTube subscribers.

Even though Texas isn't exactly a battleground, The Joe Rogan Experience, launched in 2009, is one of the most popular podcasts in the United States, especially among young men. Usually, Rogan attracts guests from many industries, including entertainment, sports, technology and politics.

The focus on a demographic likely to attract new voters could pay off for Trump.

Margins narrow with black and Latino voters

What do you have to lose? Trump, citing poverty, high unemployment and failing schools, appealed to black voters during his campaign in Michigan eight years ago.

He then predicted that he would win more than 95% of the black vote in his reelection campaign in 2020. Exit polls that year showed him winning by just 12%. Latino voters favored Biden over Trump, 65% to 32%.

Trump and his advisers have discussed the possibility of narrowing Democrats' margins of victory against voters of color. There have been signs of promise, notably with polls showing Harris underperforming Biden with Latinos. But Trump's rhetoric, as well as that surrounding his campaign, continues to risk offending many of these voters.

He compared Detroit, a majority-black city, to a developing country and called the situation a disaster during his campaign this month. And at his rally at Madison Square Garden this week in New York, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe warmed up the crowd with racist jokes.

Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage, talked about carving watermelons with a black friend, and, speaking of Latinos in general, bluntly said that they love making babies because there's no withdrawal.

They are going inside, Hinchcliffe said, just like they did in our country.

Arizona and Nevada have large Latino populations. And Pennsylvania, the state that could decide the election, is home to the third-largest Puerto Rican diaspora in the country.

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