Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces instability

Elections to Japan's lower house took place on Sunday last week. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had initially hoped to strike while the iron was hot, capitalizing on the lingering momentum left by his inauguration to take control of Japan's House of Representatives and secure his unstable administration.

However, things did not go as planned. The ruling alliance between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its long-time partner Komeito suffered a significant defeat despite its still existing advantage, failing to secure a majority of seats. Even if the LDP officially appoints Ishiba as prime minister in a special parliamentary session scheduled for November 11, he will remain a lame-duck prime minister due to the opposition's majority. If he hopes to ensure stability, he will have no choice but to form a coalition government with the opposition.

However, with so many dominant opinions, policy implementation would be difficult.

Additionally, the eradication of Ishiba's dissenting views caused him to lose support from the party's conservative base. It is left with shaky foundations, unable to stabilize internal affairs or deal with external threats. The Ishibas administration carries the baggage of long-term LDP rule and may very well repeat the mistakes of 15 years ago.

The PLD has lost power twice since its creation, each time paying a heavy price. From 1993 to 1994, Morihiro Hosokawa, then head of the opposition party, formed an eight-party coalition government, but it was scattered and disorganized and lasted only eight months before he resigned. It was the first time since its creation that the PLD lost power, but it quickly regained control.

Fifteen years later, in 2009, Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso's cabinet faced a financial crisis, leading the Democratic Party to take power. However, the three-party coalition government has seen three different prime ministers in three years. Domestic politics are at a standstill and the economy is suffering, while problems arise in foreign relations. The administration of then-Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyamas took an anti-US and pro-China stance, leading to discord within the US-Japan alliance. China, Russia, North Korea and others took advantage of this opportunity to gain power, creating unmanageable obstacles.

When Aso faced a financial crisis 15 years ago, Ishiba, then a minister, pressured him to resign. Fifteen years later, the situation has changed. Ishiba now finds himself in a political storm, facing the threat that Aso will force him to resign.

The war between Russia and Ukraine continues, while the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate. While the United States is preoccupied with its own elections, Japan has once again fallen into political turmoil. Amidst this chaos, China, Russia and North Korea each have their own hidden agendas and could very well act.

North Korea sent troops to Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin expanded the BRICS summit, and Chinese President Xi Jinping simultaneously stepped up military operations around Taiwan while making concessions on the dispute between Beijing and India. Xi is trying to focus his efforts on a huge goal.

Where there is smoke, there is fire. The political situation in Japan is unstable. China, Russia and North Korea are ruled by dictators, while the United States and Japan face frequent changes in leadership, there is an inevitable risk of losing focus.

For Taiwan to turn misfortune into blessing with this storm on the horizon, it must remember that a warlike state, no matter how great, will eventually perish. However, even in peace, a country that forgets the art of war is in peril.

Wang Hui-sheng is chief director of Kisei Women and Children's Hospital in Japan and a founding member of the East Asian Research Institute.

Translated by Kyra Gustavsen