What could a Trump presidency mean for Pakistan? – Newspaper

SOME in Pakistan believe that if Donald Trump wins the November 5 US presidential election, it could have favorable consequences for Imran Khan and US-Pakistan relations. Such expectations, however, are based on grand illusions, far removed from the realities of American foreign policy.

Although some members of Congress have expressed concerns about Imran Khan's captivity, these gestures reflect standard American political practices, in which elected officials address issues important to their constituents, primarily to obtain votes.

The Association of Pakistani Physicians of North America (AAPNA) is an influential organization representing more than 18,000 Pakistani-American physicians. Originally a network of health care professionals, AAPNA has grown into a major advocacy group.

After Imran Khan's arrest in Pakistan, AAPNA mobilized support in the United States, speaking to lawmakers to highlight concerns about democracy and human rights in Pakistan. Although Mr. Khan is a divisive figure nationally, his stance on sovereignty and anti-corruption has earned him notable support among Pakistani-Americans, including among AAPNA members.

They warned that the crackdown on the PTI could harm US foreign policy interests in the region. However, AAPNA's influence has limits, as U.S. foreign policy priorities generally revolve around broader national interests, rather than ethnic lobbying efforts alone.

If Trump were to return to office, one would expect his foreign policy to revert to an “America First” approach. His previous administration's decisions indicate that a second term would likely focus on immediate U.S. economic and security gains rather than broader commitments to democratic ideals or global partnerships.

For countries like Pakistan, another Trump presidency would likely mean a shift to a more transactional relationship, emphasizing specific security concerns rather than economic or democratic development.

For countries like Pakistan, another Trump presidency would likely mean a shift to a more transactional relationship emphasizing specific security concerns rather than economic or democratic development. Let’s look at some key aspects of Trump’s foreign policy and their potential impact on Pakistan.

Reduced foreign aid

Trump's approach to foreign policy prioritizes U.S. interests, often at the expense of alliances and international obligations. This could mean a significant reduction in foreign aid to Pakistan, with funds devoted only to specific security initiatives rather than long-term development projects.

While recent administrations have invested in supporting Pakistan's civilian institutions, a Trump administration could view these initiatives as unnecessary and focus instead on counterterrorism operations and security partnerships that align with U.S. interests.

Increased competition between the United States and China

Trump's first term saw a significant decline in US-China relations, characterized by a trade war and restrictive measures on Beijing's investments and researchers. Trump has always viewed China as Washington's main competitor, and a second term could mean an intensified effort to contain Chinese influence globally.

This stance could put additional pressure on Pakistan, whose strategic relations with Beijing, notably through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), could come under scrutiny from the United States. Trump could pressure Pakistan to limit its cooperation with China, particularly in sensitive areas such as infrastructure, technology and defense, although Pakistan would likely be reluctant to jeopardize these critical ties.

A Trump presidency would likely place Pakistan in a difficult position, where Islamabad will have to balance its long-standing relationship with the United States and pressures arising from its ties with China. As U.S. support becomes more conditional and transactional, Pakistan may need to rely more on China for economic and strategic support if U.S. aid and investment declines.

Better ties with India

As president, Trump has shown a clear preference for India as a strategic counterweight to China, a position that could strengthen if he returns to power. This could have implications for Pakistan, particularly if the Trump administration proves less responsive to Pakistan's concerns over held Kashmir or India's role in Afghanistan. The United States could prioritize its broader Indo-Pacific strategy over security dynamics in South Asia, risking a diplomatic breakdown if Pakistan perceives a pro-India bias that overrides its security interests .

Nuclear security and the fight against terrorism

Trump has previously expressed concerns about nuclear security in South Asia, and his administration could impose stricter conditions on U.S. aid and support to Pakistan. Increased control over Pakistan's nuclear assets could become part of its foreign policy, with new demands for transparency and cooperation.

Additionally, Trump's historic emphasis on fighting terrorism, highlighted by his approach to the Taliban in Afghanistan, could lead him to pressure Pakistan to take a tougher stance against terrorist groups national interests, particularly those that impact U.S. interests in the region.

For Pakistan, the stakes under a Trump administration would be high, as maintaining strong diplomatic and economic ties with the United States is vital for balanced foreign relations. If U.S.-Pakistan relations engage selectively, Islamabad could be pushed to prioritize Washington's security interests over its broader regional concerns.

Published in Dawn, November 4, 2024

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