China, Russia and Ukraine: October 2024

Russian diplomatic coverage for Beijing: In an October 3 interview, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed support for China on issues such as Taiwan and has criticized U.S. actions in the region, accusing the United States of escalating tensions. In an article in Rossiyskaya Gazeta, his criticisms were accompanied by a proposal for a new Eurasian security framework. He also praised China's position regarding the war in Ukraine, saying that both Russia and China aim to resolve the underlying issues that Russia claims are causing the conflict.

China and Russia were accused of blocking to block an October 12 joint statement from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over disagreement over the South China Sea. The disagreement centers on Beijing's territorial claims in the region, which have been a source of tension with other ASEAN members.

Military talks: According to Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Russian and Chinese military officials have been detained background discussions on Tuesday, October 15, he will address increased cooperation on global issues and efforts to counter U.S. influence in Asia. The meeting took place as China threatened to intensify military actions near Taiwan, which attracted American condemnation.

Collaboration in new institutions: At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Islamabad, Pakistan, on October 16, China and Russia announced plans deepen cooperation in areas such as trade, investment and food security. According to the Russian news agency TASS, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized stronger economic ties and joint projects, such as new transport corridors, despite unprecedented external pressure. SCO members discussed cooperation in economic relations, security, climate change and more. They also expressed support for China's Belt and Road Initiative.

THE The SCO criticized protectionist trade policies and unilateral sanctions in a joint statement following a meeting in Islamabad. THE UNITED STATESAnd soon the EUincreased tariffs on products such as Chinese electric vehicles and steel, prompting China to respond in kind. The SCO also denounced sanctions against Iran and Russia, which have dissuaded smaller countries from trading with them, even as China and India continue to buy their energy.

Li called for closer cooperation with Mongolia and Russia at an SCO summit meeting. China and Mongolia recently hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin. In doing so, the latter failed to fulfill its obligation to the International Criminal Court by not arresting Putin. Mongolia plays a key role in Russia's plan to build a major gas pipeline to China. However, while Mongolia maintains relations with China and Russia, it also maintains ties with the United States, which has close relations with China and Russia. promised investment in its mining and heavy industry.

At the summit of BRICS, the bloc of emerging economies including Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and others, on October 22, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping highlighted the growing cooperation between their countries. Putin called Xi a dear friend and Xi praised the ever-growing partnership, saying it contributes to global stability.

During the summit, China approved Russia's proposal for a payment system among BRICS to reduce dependence on the US dollar and counter sanctions. At the recent BRICS summit, the leaders discussed by launching an independent cross-border settlement and deposit infrastructure, BRICS Clear,” which would use national currencies for cross-border transactions.

Chinese automobiles in Russia: The Chinese car manufacturer Chery is I now make cars in Russian factories previously occupied by Western manufacturers who left the market following sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Brands like Chery, Geely and Haval are quickly fill the void in the Russian automobile market, with Chinese automakers accounting for more than half of vehicle sales in Russia in November 2023; before the war this figure was less than 10 percent.

Beijing-Moscow trade: A look back at September: Chinese exports to Russia increased by 15.7 percent compared to the previous year, marking the fastest growth in nine months, driven by new economic cooperation agreements. Chinese imports from Russia fell 9.2% over the past year, partly due to payment processing issues. Recent agreements between the two countries in areas such as investment and transport highlight growing bilateral ties. Overall, trade between China and Russia increased by 2.7 percent in the first nine months of 2024, reaching 1.28 trillion yuan ($180.3 billion).

Joint exercises at sea: Chinese Coast Guard entered the Arctic Sea for the first time on October 2 to conduct joint patrols with Russia. The patrols are part of Russia's strategy to increase its oil and gas exports to China, as China seeks to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Malacca. These joint operations build on previous operations collaborations in the Pacificdemonstrating that countries are strengthening their military and economic alignment in strategic regions.

In mid-October, Russian and Chinese warships held joint anti-submarine warfare and air defense exercises in the northwest Pacific Ocean as part of a broader set of military exercises, according to the Russian Navy. These exercises followed recent yearsincluding Northern/Interaction-2024 in the Sea of ​​Japan (often called the East Sea) and the Sea of ​​Okhotsk.

Election interference:On October 7, American intelligence officials warned that foreign efforts to undermine American democracy will persist after Election Day, with adversaries working to push people to doubt the integrity of the election. Iran and Russia hope to exploit the potential of a close presidential race, and China has an interest in harming the electoral chances of candidates who actively support Taiwan. These influence campaigns, often disguised as emanating from the Americans, seek to deepen divisions and cast doubt on the legitimacy of the elections. On October 23, the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center published a report saying China, Iran and Russia have stepped up efforts to influence the outcome of the elections. Russia targets Kamala Harris and Tim Walz's campaign; One of the tools they use is AI-generated deepfakes, although overall these deepfakes do not see massive engagement. China is focusing on rejected candidates and members of Congress it views as anti-China.

Ukraine: Chinese and Russian companies are in partnership to create long-range attack drones for use in Ukraine. In response, the United States imposed new sanctions against two Chinese companies, a Russian company and a Russian individual involved in the development and delivery of drones. Unlike previous sanctions, which focused on dual-use goods, the latest measures directly target the joint design, production and delivery of weapons. Although the facts suggest that, for now, China is not providing lethal supportNATO has long considered he is a significant supporter of Russia's military efforts.

China introduced new regulations increase export control capabilities that could be used for civilian or military purposes. These changes aim to improve the transparency and standardization of export control policies by implementing a permit system and a list of restricted goods, requiring exporters to declare the end users and destination of the items. The regulatory move follows U.S. claims that China is indirectly helping the Russian military in Ukraine through dual-use technology. like microelectronics. China, however, denies supplying weapons and insists its trade with Russia is legitimate.

Support of North Korean troops for Russia in Ukraine creates complex challenges for China. China, which seeks to present itself as a stabilizing actor, is struggling to reconcile this support with its stance in favor of peace and non-escalation. North Korea's military partnership with Russia could encourage it to adopt a more aggressive posture toward Japan and South Korea, potentially limiting China's influence over North Korea.

At the BRICS summit, Xi reiterated China calls for an end to military escalation in Ukraine. He emphasized a responsible approach, while emphasizing China's non-intervention stance. Xi's comments align with China's broader diplomatic stance, which claims to seek stability but is careful not to directly oppose Russia. However, in reality, it has long been a close ally of Russia, supporting it diplomatically and being an invaluable trading partner.