9DASHLINE — What does the forced expulsion of Afghan refugees in Pakistan hold?

In October 2023, Pakistan announced its decision to deport undocumented Afghan refugees from November 2023 to Afghanistan. Afghan refugees have been displaced for more than four decades, from the Soviet invasion in 1979 to subsequent conflicts. According to the Pakistani government, the country currently hosts around 3 million Afghan refugees, of whom almost 2.4 million have legal documents.

Pakistan's decision to repatriate Afghan refugees is driven by security concerns in Afghanistan's border areas, particularly in the Pakhtunkhwa region. There has been a surge in terrorist attacks in Pakistan since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of supporting the anti-Pakistan insurgency, particularly the Tahreek-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP ), who carried out deadly attacks against the Pakistani armed forces. strengths.

However, the move sparked considerable backlash and serious discussion from various quarters, including Pakistani activists, lawyers and politicians who protested against the law and warned the government of the difficulties that lie ahead. returnees to Afghanistan. Similarly, there have been strong reactions from political parties and movements in Pakistan; for example, the PTM and the Awami National Party have protested and criticized this policy. Many refugees themselves, especially those who sought refuge in Pakistan, have urged the United Nations to review this decision.

The forced return of Afghan refugees from Pakistan is a complex issue given the political history between the two nations. Reports show that around 541,000 Afghan refugees were forced to leave during the first phase launched on November 1, 2023, while more than 80,000 are expected to be forcibly expelled during the second phase launched on April 15, 2024. The Pakistani government has not proposed a path to legalization. undocumented refugees.

The excuse of repatriation

Islamabad says the presence of refugees, who are not registered with the National Database & Registration Authority (NADRA) through the UNHCR, complicates its efforts to strengthen and maintain its internal security. By repatriating Afghan refugees, Pakistan aims to avoid or reduce potential cross-border terrorism as well as militant infiltration. However, most of the affected refugees are in areas like Punjab and Karachi, where security is stable and they have Afghan citizenship cards that allow them to legally reside in Pakistan.

Options for returnees are limited. Faced with the repressive regime in Afghanistan, many risk fleeing again, potentially taking dangerous and illegal routes to other countries in search of safety.

The aim of these expulsions is apparently to exert direct pressure on the Taliban. For years, Pakistan has been seen as a haven for the Afghan Taliban, who have fought the Afghan government for two decades. Moreover, their relationship with the Taliban is generally described as that of father and son, characterized by a mixture of cooperation and shared interests; Indeed, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) supported the mujahideen and Taliban during five decades of war in Afghanistan, and former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan described the Taliban victory as a break with the chains of slavery. However, distrust between the two countries appears to have increased over the past two years, with both sides blaming each other for security incidents on the Durand Line. Pakistan now appears to be losing ground to India, which is expanding its engagement alongside the Taliban government. To curb India's influence in Afghanistan and align it with its own interests, Islamabad could resort to tactics such as the forced return of refugees.

The repatriation and security of Afghan refugees poses a dilemma for Pakistan. While aiming to secure its borders, it risks creating new security challenges by pushing marginalized Afghans into a destabilized Afghanistan, potentially fueling cross-border terrorism and separatism in regions like Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, thereby prolonging the cycle of insecurity.

Political uncertainty in Pakistan, particularly following Imran Khan's softer approach towards Afghan refugees, appears to be a key factor behind the repatriation. Rising nationalism and populist rhetoric often scapegoat Afghan refugees, particularly those of Pashtun origin, for issues such as crime, unemployment and social unrest. The Pashtun Tahfuz Movement (PTM) has criticized the state's double standards and injustices against Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand Line. In response to the PTM's opposition to state terrorism, the government launched a military operation, Azm-e-Istehkam, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, seen as an attempt to oppress the Pashtun minority. Meanwhile, despite the presence of 70 terrorist organizations in Punjab, Pakistan continues to use Pashtun territories as a front for its counterterrorism efforts.

The repatriation also responds to domestic pressure, as the opportunistic government seeks to appease its citizens by taking action against foreign charges to divert attention from its own failures. Although politically expedient, this populist tactic risks deepening societal divisions and fueling xenophobic attitudes, thereby further undermining social cohesion in Pakistan. By using refugees as a political tool, Pakistan is alienating a large population of Afghan Pashtuns who have lived in the country for decades and helped build a marginalized community with lasting ties to both countries. Although this strategy may offer some political advantages in the short term, it risks harming social stability in the long term.

The economic rationale for repatriation argues that Afghan refugees place a strain on public services and infrastructure. A Pakistani official claimed that hosting refugees costs the economy $413.3 billion, but this claim is misleading. Afghan refugees have contributed significantly to Pakistan's economy, particularly in the informal sector, such as carpet production. Many have started businesses and created jobs, helping to fill critical labor shortages. Anti-refugee discourse ignores their economic contributions and rejects their integration into local economies.

Repatriation concerns

Pakistan's policy of repatriating thousands of Afghan refugees to unstable Afghanistan, ruled by a group that has not yet been officially recognized, is an immoral act and a complete violation of human rights. International law, in particular the principle of non-refoulement, strictly prohibits the return of refugees to places where their fundamental rights are threatened and where they may be subjected to any form of violence. There have been reports of refugees facing police harassment, illegal detention, bribery and arbitrary arrests, which have been condemned by human rights organizations.

Six hundred to eight hundred thousand Afghans are believed to have fled the country after the Taliban took power in August 2021 to seek refuge in Pakistan. According to human rights organizations, sending these refugees back to Afghanistan would expose them to the risk of prosecution. Therefore, from the perspective of international law and human rights, this policy represents a serious ethical dilemma. Even if the security and political concerns of the Pakistani government are well-founded, they cannot justify the forced return of refugees to a country where their safety is not guaranteed. It also harms Pakistan's image as a country that has welcomed millions of refugees with some hospitality. This dilemma highlights the tension between international humanitarian obligations and national sovereignty, a balance that the Pakistani government has yet to achieve.

The Taliban government is already grappling with internal chaos and difficulties providing services to its population. Now it faces the added burden of reintegrating hundreds of thousands of returnees from Pakistan. Given the historical ties and expectations of loyalty between the Taliban and Pakistan, the Taliban may perceive this policy as a betrayal, further straining relations. The forced return could be seen as a disregard for the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, undermining the Taliban's efforts to stabilize the country.

Additionally, forced repatriation complicates Pakistan's ability to influence the Taliban, particularly on issues critical to its national security, such as border management and counterterrorism. The move could even push the Taliban to strengthen ties with regional powers like India, further escalating tensions. Anti-Pakistan sentiment is already high among Afghans, largely due to Islamabad's military operations targeting the TTP on Afghan soil. The return of refugees risks intensifying these feelings, thus adding fuel to the fire.

The repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan is more than just a response to the region's border challenges. Driven by security concerns, populist policies and economic pressures, the policy highlights Pakistan's struggle to balance internal stability with its diplomatic and humanitarian obligations.

A bleak future for returnees

Returnees are a diverse group; many of them are families who have lived in Pakistan for decades. For them, returning to Afghanistan means finding themselves faced with an abandoned country, plagued by unemployment and homelessness. Their future is deeply uncertain, particularly under harsh Taliban rule, which will be difficult for families who have adopted a more liberal lifestyle. Additionally, many returnees face persecution due to their ties to the former government, although no such incidents have been reported so far. However, women are particularly vulnerable, facing the harsh reality of restricted rights, including bans on education and employment.

Options for returnees are limited. Faced with the repressive regime in Afghanistan, many risk fleeing again, potentially taking dangerous and illegal routes to other countries in search of safety.

The expected diplomatic fallout with the Taliban only worsens an already tense situation. The consequences, particularly in terms of border management, the fight against terrorism, rising anti-Pakistani sentiment and growing separatism, could escape the control of the two governments. Forcing refugees to return to unstable Afghanistan, under an unrecognized government, highlights the need for a cooperative regional approach. This requires not only the Pakistani government, but also the international community, to engage in dialogue and establish mechanisms to protect refugees.

DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the 9DASHLINE.com platform.

Author biography

Mansoor Sadat is an independent Afghan researcher and writer based in Spain, with a particular interest in Afghanistan. Image credit: UN Women Asia and the Pacific.

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