Xi Jinping could lose his bet

_{This article was originally published in English on the website The Atlantic}

By Michel Schuman

The revelation that North Korean troops gathered in Russia, apparently to help President Vladimir Putin in his brutal invasion of Ukraine, has fueled Western fears that autocratic states are uniting to undermine the interests of democracies . HAauthoritarian coalition, but it is fragile and depends on China's tolerance for chaos.

The war in Ukraine was a showcase of cooperation between four states, Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, which share an antipathy toward the United States and the international order that they represent. Since its neighbor's invasion in 2022, Russia has acquired drones and missiles from Iran. In October, Washington sanctioned Chinese companies for working with Russian companies to produce drones. China also supplies Russia with vital components that help power its war machine, according to U.S. officials. And now North Korean troops have arrived in Russia where, according to Ukrainian officials, they are preparing to join the invading forces. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said if troops participated in the war it would be a “very, very serious problem” with potential implications in Europe and Asia.

This cooperation, however, masks the divisions between the world's main autocracies. Russia, China, North Korea and Iran do not necessarily agree on how to achieve their common goal: fighting US domination. Putin chose an expansionist war. North Korea and Iran, impoverished, isolated from the West and zealously anti-American, have little to lose, and something material to gain, by helping Russia. But China's calculus is more complicated, because its desire to change the current world order is tempered by its dependence on that same order. The Chinese economy remains too dependent on the United States and its partners to risk being heavily sanctioned for sending weapons to Putin.

Constrained by these competing interests, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has taken a generally cautious approach to his global ambitions. It apparently aims to preserve some global stability to protect the Chinese economy while gradually increasing China's power. But at the same time, it deepened its relations with Russia and Iran, even as their leaders fomented chaos in Europe and the Middle East.

Washington is pressuring Beijing to intervene and restrict North Korea's cooperation with Russia, but Xi has not shown much interest in exploiting his influence to control his self-critical friends. He met with Putin just a day before the Biden administration revealed the presence of North Korean troops in Russia. It's unclear what happened between the two, but the troops stayed.

It can be argued that China not only allows, but indirectly finances all of these disruptions. The United States has sanctioned Russia, Iran, and North Korea, leading these three countries to become heavily dependent on China. Trade between China and Russia reached a record $240 billion last year. Russian companies are even turning to the Chinese currency, the yuan, to replace the US dollar. China buys almost all of Iran's oil exports and accounts for 90% of North Korea's foreign trade. These three countries may have continued their wars, nuclear programs and terrorist campaigns without economic ties to China. But Beijing's support undoubtedly helps, and Xi is apparently willing to accept the outcome.

The destabilizing activities of other autocracies may appear as a victory for China as they deprive the West of its resources and undermine its position in the world. But they are also risky, because the unrest they create could backfire on China. For example, a broader war in the Middle East could disrupt energy markets and harm China's economy. Xi is in no diplomatic or military position in the Middle East to contain the damage. Meanwhile, North Korea's deployment in Russia threatens to escalate the war in Ukraine: South Korea's president has warned that Seoul could respond by supplying Ukraine with offensive weapons. China's leaders have little to gain by focusing the efforts of America's European and Asian allies against Russia. If the war escalates, U.S. and European leaders could step up sanctions against China to force it to curb its support for Moscow.

The conundrum of China's foreign policy is that it simultaneously seeks to completely subvert the international order in the long term and preserve it in the short term. Xi's proposed solution to this problem will in the medium term reduce China's dependence on the United States and the global system it dominates. It seeks “self-sufficiency” and encourages closer trade and investment ties with the Global South to distance China's economy from Western technology and consumer markets. China would then have greater freedom to support autocracies such as Russia, Iran and North Korea in their destabilizing activities.

But it's the future. For now, Xi is willing to tolerate a world on fire, in the hope that China does not burn out. By stoking tensions with the West, it could harm China's economy and complicate its geopolitical ambitions. What will the Chinese leader do if this bet does not succeed? With friends like Xi's, perhaps he doesn't need enemies.

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