As Trump promises mass deportations, polls suggest growing support but not mandate

CNN-

Support for deporting undocumented immigrants has increased since Donald Trump's last term, according to a review of recent polls, as have nativist sentiments in general. But the level of public support for mass deportations varies widely depending on the wording of the question, suggesting that there are limits to the public's appetite for denying any path to citizenship to people seeking citizenship. found illegally in the United States.

Trump has made a promise to carry out mass deportations a cornerstone of his 2024 campaign. His allies have already begun to consider how to achieve this, while immigration supporters are preparing for major actions. wingspan.

This year, a national exit poll by CNN found that immigration was an important issue for Trump in this election, but that does not suggest a mass deportation mandate. Voters gave Trump a roughly 9-point advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in terms of confidence in handling immigration, according to the latest data.

But they also said, between 56 and 40 percent, that most undocumented immigrants in the United States should be offered the opportunity to apply for legal status, rather than being deported back to their home countries. A quarter of Trump voters said they favored a path to citizenship, while only about 9% of voters who supported Harris said they wanted to see most undocumented immigrants deported. Nearly four in 10 Hispanic voters who supported Trump said they favored a path to citizenship.

Complicating these results is the fact that polls this year have found widely disparate levels of support for deportation. Questions that simply ask whether people favor or oppose mass deportations find about half or more of the country in favor: 47 percent of Americans in a June Gallup poll said they favored deporting all immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries. , and 58% of registered voters in an October Marquette Law School poll supported deporting immigrants who live in the United States illegally to their home countries.

The Marquette poll, however, asked about expulsion in two different ways. Half of the voters surveyed were asked whether they would support deporting these immigrants even if they have lived here for several years, have a job and have no criminal record, and support eviction fell to 40% among this group, with 60% opposed.

Similarly, a separate Gallup poll question found that 70% of American adults supported allowing immigrants living in the United States illegally to have the opportunity to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain requirements over a period of time, with an even larger percentage of 81% in favor of an access route. to citizenship for those who were brought to the country as children.

And a June CBS News/YouGov poll found that while 62 percent of registered voters favored launching a new national deportation program, a slim majority opposed keeping immigrants in deportation centers. detention to do so.

In contrast, surveys that ask respondents to choose between deportation and obtaining citizenship often find more support for the latter. In CNN's final pre-election survey this year, two-thirds of registered voters said the government's top priority in dealing with immigrants living in the United States illegally should be developing a plan to allow some to become legal residents.

In a Pew Research Center poll this summer, 59% of registered voters said there should be a way for undocumented immigrants who meet certain requirements to stay in the country, with 37% saying it should not. be the case, with only a third saying there should be. a national law enforcement effort to deport all immigrants living in the country illegally.

However, regardless of context, national polls agree on an increase in support for deportation policies in recent years, coupled with a broader increase in nativist sentiment.

An October CNN poll found a 20-point increase in support for eviction from 2017 among registered voters, with a poll earlier this fall also finding a 22-point increase from 2019 among registered voters. of voters who said the growing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups, and nationalities in the United States threatened rather than enriched society.

In June 2024 Gallup data, the share of Americans favoring deporting all immigrants living illegally in the United States was up 15 points from 2016, with the share favoring reducing immigration levels increasing by 17 points during the same period.

As political scientist Michael Tesler noted earlier this year, this shift appears to align with the thermostatic model of public opinion, in which public political attitudes change against the current president's policies in response to real or perceived changes in the status quo, with their views moving to the left under Trump and back to the right under (Joe) Biden.

This suggests that opinions may shift again during Trump's second term.

CNN's Henry Gertmenian contributed to this report.

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