How Boris Johnson's historic experience is behind the increase in immigration numbers

TThe name of this feature is Politics Explained, but there are some topics that are so difficult to explain that we could rename it, just for a day, to How Did This Happen?

How was it possible, given that the British population overwhelmingly wants less immigration and voted in favor of leaving the European Union partly for this reason, that the British government reacted to the freedom to define its own immigration policy, granted by Brexit, by relaxing controls. so this net immigration has tripled?

Figures released on Thursday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimate net immigration for the year to June 2024, the last year for which the Conservative government was responsible, at 728,000 people.

Isn't this higher than the previous figure?

Yes, the last figure published by the ONS was 685,000 for the year to December 2023 (these estimates are made every six months, so the annual figure is updated six times a year each time). Everyone expected this figure to drop, because very late, the Conservative government changed the rules to restrict immigration.

Immigration did indeed fall, but it turns out it was at a higher level than the ONS had imagined, so the figure of 685,000 has now been revised to 866,000. And the figure for The year to June 2023, to which the latest figure should be compared, has been revised from the previous estimate of 740,000 to 906,000.

So net immigration actually fell by 20 percent, if we compare the last full year with the year before. And yet it's still higher than we thought six months ago, even if that figure turns out to be wrong.

Anyway, how much is 700,000 a year?

This figure may be less than 900,000, but it is still unprecedented. In the years before the EU referendum, net immigration stood at 300,000 people a year, and most people thought that figure was far too high. David Cameron, then Prime Minister, had never renounced the policy of reducing the number of refugees to several tens of thousands, widely interpreted as an aspiration to reduce it below 100,000 per year.

Ed Miliband has hit out at Liberal Party activists for allowing the production of a Labor mug with immigration control printed on it, even though he refused to give figures on Labor policy.

So the answer is that 700,000 is more than twice the level before the referendum, when opinion polls showed that even Remainers wanted less immigration.

How did this happen?

The answer is mainly Boris Johnson. He promised in his 2019 manifesto to deliver Brexit and then introduce a firmer and fairer points-based immigration system like Australia, and said: Overall numbers will fall . But he was never very interested in the subject of immigration or political details, and had been liberal on immigration when he was mayor of London.

Its points system has allowed much higher immigration from outside the EU than before, although the effects of coronavirus lockdowns masked the start of the rise when the transition period to leave the EU ended at the end of 2021. An additional number of migrants came from Hong Kong and Ukraine, but most of the increase came from those who arrived through work and study.

What will happen now?

The Office for Budget Responsibility predicted that net immigration would average around 350,000 a year during this parliamentary term, but this figure is likely to be revised upwards in light of the latest ONS changes.

Kemi Badenoch attempted to disavow the Conservatives' recent past by calling a press conference at short notice on Wednesday in an attempt to highlight the figures that the previous government did not get what the people wanted when it voted to end free movement in the EU.

Keir Starmer tried to capitalize on the Tories' embarrassment by holding his own press conference on Thursday to accuse the previous government of using Brexit as an experiment in open borders.

He said: I would like to see immigration fall significantly, knowing that the numbers are likely to fall significantly, mainly due to policy changes made by the previous government in its final months.

But he also knows that people are worried about irregular immigration, which is more visible, via small boats crossing the Channel, hence his announcement of a return agreement with Iraq.