Growing domestic discontent spells trouble for Xi

Barely had the dust settled after the disappearance of Chinese State Councilor, Foreign Minister and Chinese President Xi Jinping's protégé Qin Gang, when three months later Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu was “removed” from his position. Li Shangfu was also a close associate of Xi Jinping.

On November 28, we now have confirmation that the political commissar of the Central Military Commission (CMC), Admiral Miao Hua, another close collaborator of Xi Jinping, is under investigation. Until she was placed under investigation, Miao Hua was the highest-ranking official responsible for ensuring compliance with the ideology and regulations of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) throughout the PLA.

The sudden downfall of three of Xi Jinping's close aides speaks to the discontent with Xi Jinping at the CCP's upper echelons and certainly signals that all is not well at Zhongnanhai, the walled residential compound in Beijing of China's top leaders .

Recent layoffs within the PLA Rocket Force, as well as the withdrawal of some senior generals, suggest problems within the PLA. Indicating that the circle of investigation among senior PLA officers has widened, the latest reports, although not yet confirmed, indicate that the commander of the PLA Eastern Theater Command, General Lin Xiangyang, and until now Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department of the CMC and CMC. Member Liu Zhenli are both under investigation. Eastern Theater Command is the frontline command for operations against Taiwan. Liu Zhenli is the highest-ranking officer in the PLA. China's Defense Minister, Admiral Dong Jun, is already under investigation.

Rumors have been circulating for several months about a power struggle at the top of the PLA. There are two streams of rumors. The first is that the “helicopter” promotion of General He Weidong as one of the two vice-chairmen of the CMC was poorly received by senior PLA officers, who felt that he was not sufficiently experienced nor high enough. The other is that there is a rivalry between General Zhang Youxia and General He Weidong. The first is a war veteran, having fought in the war against Vietnam, and General He Weidong has experience in the confrontation with Taiwan. The latter exerts influence on the commands of the Southern and Eastern theaters. He Weidong also formed close personal ties with Xi Jinping and the two were friends when Xi Jinping was stationed in Fujian province. Rumors claim that He Weidong represents a “Taiwanese faction” within the PLA.

Zhang Youxia, senior vice president of the CMC, is also a second-generation “prince” and close family friend of Xi Jinping. Their fathers served together in the 1940s. This closeness and Zhang Youxia's reputation as a military professional pushed Xi Jinping to retain him in the CMC as vice president during the 20th Party Congress in 2022, when he had passed retirement age. Zhang Youxia was also reappointed as one of two PLA officers in the CCP Politburo. As the highest-ranking general in the PLA, Zhang Youxia enjoys considerable respect among PLA personnel and veterans.

Miao Hua, who held the rank of admiral in the PLA Navy, was, until his dismissal last week, director of the CMC's political work department and a member of the CMC. He was retained as director of the political work department of the CMC and a member of the CMC at the 20th Party Congress. Miao Hua is the first in a group of elite officers who earned their stripes in the PLA's 31st Army Group in the Nanjing Military Region near Xiamen. He and others, such as former People's Armed Police commander Wang Ning and new PLA Army commander Han Weiguo, came into contact with Xi Jinping, who was the deputy Party secretary of Fujian . All their careers have been accelerated.

Miao Hua is a close aide of Xi Jinping and their terms overlapped when Xi Jinping was Party Secretary of Zhejiang Province. In mid-2012, Miao Hua was promoted to deputy political commissar of the Lanzhou MR and secretary of its disciplinary inspection commission, and a few months later was appointed political commissar of the Lanzhou Military Region. Considering that the Lanzhou Military Region has long been considered a power base of Guo Boxiong of the Jiang Zemin faction, Miao Hua is believed to have played a role in the investigations against Guo Boxiong and eliminated the remnants of his influence in the region. Miao Hua was among senior PLA officers who published articles in April 2014 pledging their loyalty to Xi Jinping. General Miao Hua received a double promotion from Xi Jinping to become one of the youngest PLA officers to be promoted to the rank of PLA general.

Miao Hua's ouster, for whatever reason, could mean that his associates, protégés and people appointed on his recommendation would now be subject to new scrutiny. This could include CMC general vice president He Weidong. Given Miao Hua's long tenure as a political commissar in the CMC, he is said to have played a key role in the elevation and appointment of many senior PLA officers.

But the implications of these deletions would be broader. They point to either Chinese President Xi Jinping's poor judgment regarding personnel or the fact that Xi Jinping himself is under attack. There is enough popular discontent, including within the CCP, with Xi Jinping's policies. The slowdown in the economy and graduate unemployment and the resulting increase in the cost of living have deepened societal discontent.

Much depends on the degree of support Xi Jinping enjoys within the PLA and the relevance of rumors of differences between Zhang Youxia and He Weidong. The looming unpredictability in Sino-US relations, amid growing domestic discontent, portends tough times ahead for Xi Jinping.