House Intel's Himes: Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2027 would be 'really stupid'

Chinese President Xi Jinping and a PLA Navy honor guard await the King of Bahrain (Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON The ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee said today that he does not accept China taking action on Taiwan in 2027, for several reasons, including his assertion that it would seem “really stupid.” .

“Frankly, I'm skeptical of this statement, which is everywhere, you know, 'Xi [Jinping] ordered the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] be prepared to invade Taiwan in 2027,'” Rep. Jim Himes told the audience. Brookings Institute and CSIS event. “First of all, it might not happen.”

“That seems like a really stupid way to go about it too, doesn’t it? You know?” he said later. “There are islands claimed by Taiwan that are three kilometers off the coast of China, right? You could put up a blockade. You know what? If you invade Taiwan, what's going on? A. You could lose. B. You could reduce the place to smoking rubble, in which case, what have you actually achieved economically? You would have an incredible brain drain? risked nuclear war with the United States, I suppose. You destabilize the region for a generation.

The year 2027 has been nicknamed the Davidson Window, after the former head of the US Indo-Pacific Command. Phil Davidson testified before lawmakers in 2021 that Beijing could attempt to annex Taiwan within six years. In 2023, CIA Director Bill Burns reiterated this timeline, stating: American intelligence showed Xi had given the Chinese military a deadline of 2027 to be ready to invade if he gave the order.

“Now, this doesn't mean he's decided to carry out an invasion in 2027 or any other year, but it does remind us of the seriousness of his goal and his ambition,” Burns said then.

Last month, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, said China appeared to be on track to meet Xi's 2027 readiness goal, but it was unclear whether Beijing had been considering a long-term invasion plan. .

Himes, who is briefed on classified U.S. intelligence assessments, said today that while he would not categorically “reject” the assertion that China could invade in the next three years, it would be impossible to know whether China had achieved the “goal” of invasion. be ready. And it probably wouldn't work well if they tested it.

“You know, just ask Vladimir Putin how predictable invasions are, even in neighboring countries, let alone in 100 miles of blue water,” he said.

Himes said the warnings for 2027 are “the kind of thing that the hawks say in the House and I'm supposed to be really scared by that, rather than saying, 'Okay, how can we take the necessary steps to make this possibility less likely? » ?'

“And these steps can range from 'Let's actually maintain or accelerate deterrence by arming Taiwan' to 'Let's emphasize areas where there are deep common interests with China to make that less likely,'” he said.

Justin Katz contributed to this report.

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