Starmer is under the hooves of the Westminster herd

“At Westminster, the herd instinct is strong, and when the herd moves, it moves. »

This is what a former prime minister observed after being forced to leave office following a cascade of ministerial resignations and MPs demanding his departure.

That phrase could just as easily describe the predicament Sir Keir Starmer currently finds himself in, with almost 80 Labor MPs last night publicly urging him to stand down.

Yet it was Boris Johnson – the Prime Minister whom Starmer relentlessly pursued from the opposition benches – who spoke these words, resigning on the steps of Downing Street in July 2022.

Today, the same fate seems to await the Labor Prime Minister. Despite Sir Keir’s insistence that “I am not going to plunge this country into chaos”, I fear he has already done so. There is a certain poetry in the reflection of Johnson’s fall.

Last night, we are told, three ministers went to see him like the ghosts that haunt Ebenezer Scrooge in A Christmas Carolthere to point out the errors of his ways. Two names remain unknown, although it is widely reported that Interior Minister Shabana Mahmood was the third – and, even without confirmation of the full trio, it is suspected that Mahmood would have made a convincing ghost of a future Christmas in the political world. They urged the Prime Minister to consider his position, something Ed Miliband had already raised almost a week ago when he suggested Starmer set a timetable for resignation.

Today, the Prime Minister faces his cabinet, very few of whom have chosen to publicly rally to his side. The mood has only worsened since Sir Keir’s so-called watershed speech, which simply seemed to break the Labor party further. It was another helping of managerial word salad – bundled clichés that somehow still require an automatic cue – peppered with a nod to closer relations with the European Union. If this were a Prime Minister fighting for his political life, it is hard to imagine the comatose version.

Other pro-Starmer briefings insist it would be selfish for the rival factions to continue their regicidal maneuvers, saying it would only inflict more damage on Labor. Yet one might reasonably wonder whether Sir Keir’s desperate attempts to hang on are not the utmost selfishness.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting has already launched a proxy leadership campaign. His ministerial aide Joe Morris resigned, while neighboring MP Jas Athwal openly called for Starmer to leave. Streeting’s allies want the contest to end quickly, before Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham can stage a return to Westminster.

The distinction between the rival camps is already evident. Street supporters will call for a “rapid process” (to install him soon), while Burnham’s supporters will push for an “orderly transition” (to give him time to find a seat).

The soft left are furious at the prospect of a leadership race fought without Burnham. They argue that any Streeting victory in such circumstances would lack legitimacy. Some Labor figures went so far as to inform Bloomberg that, if Streeting had his way, they would seek to remove him from Number 10 faster than Liz Truss. Even conservatives have not tried to overthrow a leader before the crown touches his head. This shows quite a talent for drama.

The conservatives nevertheless have the feeling of missing something. A shadow cabinet minister sent a message yesterday: “Coups used to be fun. Now we just look at them from the sidelines. We were much better at it.”

Another joked: “We are available for any advice. »

Don’t expect much noise from Tory headquarters while Labor tears itself apart. “Why would we release something when they’re ripping each other’s throats out?” a CCHQ source told me with joy.

One of the things they also know from experience is that it won’t stop there. Ousting leaders and allowing elections while they are in government fuels pre-existing tensions within the parliamentary party and lets them fester through the system – making them difficult to contain afterwards.

The Conservatives have long hoped to destabilize the Labor government through a constant campaign of pressure and forced reversals. Yet it was arguably Nigel Farage and the Reform Party who dealt the decisive blow in the local elections. In truth, however, the roots of this crisis lie within the Labor Party itself: the absence of any real intellectual energy or plan for government from Starmer and his circle beyond a determination to stay put.

All this may delight opposition parties – although some Tory MPs privately fear that a post-Starmer Labor leader could prove a more formidable opponent – ​​but it is an extraordinary spectacle for a ruling party at a moment of economic fragility. From Labor’s perspective, a changing of the guard after Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves had absorbed the economic woes might have been the most rational solution. But Westminster is rarely governed this way. When the herd moves, it moves.

Conservative MPs once had to face the suspicion that the man best placed to win an election for them – Boris Johnson – might not be the right man to govern the country. Labor MPs are now asking exactly the same question about Sir Keir Starmer.

Starmer encouraged the flock when they turned on Johnson. He now finds himself under his hooves.