Japan’s Taiwan Fears Reveal Deeper Crisis in U.S. Deterrence

In recent years, Japan has gradually changed the language it uses when talking about China and Taiwan.

While Tokyo once sought to avoid any statements that could be interpreted as preparation for military confrontation, senior Japanese officials are now speaking openly about the possibility that a war against Taiwan could become a direct security crisis for Japan itself.

A major turning point occurred on November 7, 2025, when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated during a parliamentary debate that an emergency situation in Taiwan involving the use of force and warships could constitute a situation threatening Japan’s national survival.

The implication was unequivocal: Tokyo no longer views Taiwan as a distant issue, but rather as a focal point with direct consequences for Japan’s national security.

Japan’s concerns mainly come from China’s position.

On December 31, 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared in his New Year’s speech that China would “surely be reunified” with Taiwan. Xi has repeatedly emphasized that Taiwan’s reunification with China is a strategic and historical goal that is not open to negotiation.

During his summit with US President Donald Trump in Beijing in May 2026, Xi sharpened his rhetoric further, warning that the Taiwan issue was the most sensitive and important topic in China-US relations and that mishandling of the issue could lead to confrontation between the two powers.

From the perspective of Japan and Taiwan, however, the most worrying development is not just China, but rather the change in American approach.

The changing American posture

At the same summit, Trump avoided explicitly committing to defending Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. When asked whether the United States would protect Taiwan, he said he did not want to discuss the issue.

He also appeared to defend the Chinese president, saying Xi was not seeking war.
At the same time, Trump stressed that the United States should avoid getting drawn into a distant war in Asia. He also reiterated his long-standing argument that semiconductor manufacturing should be brought back to the United States.

Washington has not abandoned Taiwan, but in Taipei and Tokyo there is a growing sense that American commitment is no longer as unequivocal as it once seemed.

Increasingly, regional actors believe that in the event of a direct confrontation with China, the United States would act with extreme caution and seek to avoid full-scale war whenever possible.

This perception has been reinforced by the conduct of the United States towards Iran. Despite the clear military superiority of the United States and Israel, and despite Iran’s grave strategic difficulties after years of sanctions and economic erosion, Trump has so far failed to bring Tehran to a clear breaking point.

In the eyes of many countries, the very fact that the Iranian regime remains standing and has not capitulated to American pressure is interpreted as evidence of American indecision – or at least an unwillingness to follow through.

Under such circumstances, any future agreement between Washington and Tehran that leaves the Iranian regime intact without a decisive outcome could be seen internationally as proof that the United States and Israel have failed to achieve complete victory.

Such messaging could also shape how China and North Korea assess American resolve and Washington’s willingness to defend its allies in Asia, including Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan.

It also carries a broader lesson for Israel. Even a state with a deep strategic alliance with the United States, like Taiwan, finds that no guarantee is absolute or permanent.

American support can be extremely strong, but it always depends on changing political and strategic circumstances.

From the Israeli perspective, then, the conclusion must be clear: Israel needs its alliance with the United States, but it must still ensure that it retains the ability to defend itself even without direct American military intervention.

The writer is a senior researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.

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