Support for UK reforms goes beyond ‘protest’ votes, study finds

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Support for UK reform is not simply a “protest” vote and is driven more by ideology than dissatisfaction with the state of the country, a major survey has found.

The British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey found that Reform voters stand out most for their attitudes on cultural issues such as immigration and transgender rights.

Leading opinion polling expert and BSA co-author Sir John Curtice described reform supporters as “deeply ideological” and having “a level of emotional attachment that neither Labor nor the Conservatives have been able to inspire in voters for decades”.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party potentially faces a ‘ceiling’ in the amount of support it can command (PA)

Although there may be a “limit” to how many votes Nigel Farage’s party can get, it could potentially be high enough to win a general election, Sir John added.

Briefing on the findings, he said the Conservatives were ahead of Labor in the polls by having them “breakfast, lunch and dinner”, but added they were “unlikely” to beat the 32% mark recorded in a poll earlier this year.

Previously, that level of support wasn’t enough to win a general election, but “it’s a potentially winning number because our politics are more broadly fragmented,” he said.

The BSA survey found that reform supporters were more dissatisfied with the state of the country and their own personal circumstances than other voters.

Overall, 60% were “very dissatisfied” with the NHS compared to 51% of the general public, while 27% said they were currently “struggling” with their household income. That’s 5 points more.

Sir John Curtis described supporters of reform as ‘seriously ideological’ (PA).

However, when it came to cultural issues, three in four (75%) said immigrants had damaged British culture, compared to 35% of the general public.

And 88% of the general public say equal opportunity for transgender people has gone too far, compared to 48%, and 78% say benefits for the unemployed have gone too high (60%).

Sir John said the roots of the party’s support lay in the 2016 vote to leave the EU, describing it as “motivated by cultural questions about national identity, immigration and pride in British history”.

He added: “The reforms have effectively co-opted the coalition of voters who voted for Boris Johnson to get Brexit done in 2019.”

“The party’s future prospects depend not simply on whether the economy and health care recover or whether voters are more satisfied with the way we are governed at the next election.

“They also rely heavily on whether it can continue to persuade Britain’s socially conservative voters that it best represents their views.”

The BSA survey, conducted annually by the National Center for Social Research since 1983, surveyed 4,656 people across the UK.

The most recent version took place between August and October 2025.

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