Why Trump lost to Iran

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The first surprising thing about President Trump’s impending defeat in the 2026 war with Iran is that he already fought and won a war with Iran last year. In June 2025, US and Israeli airstrikes severely damaged Iran’s nuclear program in 12 days of bombardment. The exact severity of this situation remains controversial. But they didn’t do anything. Had Trump resigned sooner, he might have considered his gains last August a solid, if imperfect, victory.

The second surprising thing about Trump’s impending defeat is that he doesn’t seem to care at all about the one obvious reason to resume fighting in 2026: the rebellion of the Iranian people against their brutal oppressors. Trump has never shown he cares about Iranian democracy or human rights. He promised the Iranian people that “help is on the way” on January 13, but military operations did not begin until thousands had been killed and the rebellion had already been effectively crushed. During military operations, Trump made it clear that he was seeking an agreement with the ruling regime. He made no effort to support or cooperate with Iranian dissidents before, during or after the uprising.

The third surprising thing about Trump’s impending defeat is that even he himself never seems to have understood why he went back to war with Iran. What exactly did he think he would achieve? He repeatedly said he wanted to ensure that Iran never developed a nuclear weapon. He also insisted that he had actually stopped him from doing so in August. He seemed to sincerely believe this statement. If so, why resume fighting? However, if these comments were wrong, why not just attack nuclear sites again? Why is this greater war necessary?

Trump started the war on February 28 for reasons of personality, not strategy. He is about to lose the war for the same personality reasons.

Trump is arrogant. Think about how often Trump mocks his predecessors as “stupid” and brags about being “smart.” These predecessors, from Jimmy Carter to Joe Biden to Ronald Reagan, all had to consider military responses to Iranian terrorism and aggression. They ultimately all decided not to wage a major war against Iranian national territory. Among the main obstacles to action: the problem of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump apparently decided that a problem too difficult for everyone would magically disappear for him, because he looks tough and grunts in his official photographs.

Trump is reckless. Trump is not one to plan ahead. He embarks on desperate adventures with no clear end in mind. What really was Trump’s plan on January 6, 2021? After Mike Pence was arrested by rioters and forced at gunpoint to recite the magic words Trump wanted him to say, what was supposed to happen then? Would the majority of the 81 million Americans who voted against Trump in 2020 submit? Would the military, CIA and FBI follow blatantly illegal orders? In 2021, Trump instigated the violence and hoped everything would work out somehow. He followed the same approach again in 2026.

Trump hates the procedure. Much of the machinery of the modern presidency exists to force confrontation with undesirable realities. Cabinet leaders are confirmed by the Senate to assure the country that key offices are filled by people of character and competence. The National Security Council is supposed to process complex data to ensure that the president receives the necessary information. But to lead the Department of Defense, Trump nominated and the Senate approved Pete Hegseth. Instead of choosing a national security advisor to replace Mike Waltz after Waltz resigned on May 1, 2025, Trump tapped Secretary of State Marco Rubio to take on the role. But doubling down on this particular job dooms the job to not getting done at all, especially because Trump has shrunk the NSC staff and subjected it to the loyalty tests demanded by his most outlandish supporters.

Trump is panicked. For all his bluster and boasting, Trump can’t take the heat. Presidents who believe in their decisions resist bad polls. Trump panics and changes course. Trump has been signaling since mid-March that he wants to end the war in Iran at almost any cost. The Iranians read these signals. Despite all the damage inflicted on Iran by the US military, the Iranians seem to have gambled that they could outlast Trump. They were right.

Trump is gullible. As Trump’s current Secretary of State observed in 2016, Trump is fundamentally a crook. But Trump is often a doomed conman who is a victim of his own fraud. Trump demanded an “unconditional surrender” from Iran. Instead, he is negotiating an exit that concedes to most of Iran’s demands and leaves Iran in a more dominant position over Persian Gulf oil traffic than before the war. But Trump genuinely seems to have convinced himself that he has won a big victory, and he seems genuinely baffled that others refuse to endorse his flim-flam.

Trump cannot lead. Trump’s method of governing is command. He cannot work across party lines and he cannot speak to any part of the American nation beyond his MAGA base. But a war leader must be a national leader. War requires costly sacrifices. Leaders who lead the nation into war must explain these costs and inspire these sacrifices. Trump simply cannot do this job, and he has no idea how it could be done.

For three years during his first term, Trump benefited from the strong economy he inherited. Then the pandemic hit, and his first instinct was to look for someone responsible. During this second presidency, his main work was spectacular personal enrichment, even as the economy sank under the weight of his catastrophic trade wars. He has not publicly advocated war against Iran and has never sought congressional approval. There are some Iran hawks on the Democratic side, particularly in the Senate. Trump never tried to ally with them.

Trump’s vision of the presidency is authoritarian and kleptocratic: giving orders, taking money, wallowing in flattery, erecting monuments to him. This is no way to lead a nation through the hazards and difficulties of war. Today, the war ends on terms disadvantageous to the United States. Trump’s old methods will be used for a new task: trying to fool the American people and the world into believing that the war he lost was actually a great victory, the greatest ever won, so great that it cannot be believed. He will probably discover that, in fact, no one believes it.

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