Donald Trump’s deals leave Iran in control and Israel more vulnerable

On full display this weekend was the outrageous haste with which Donald Trump declared that a deal had been reached with Iran to end their conflict: a deal that appears to offer straight-up American concessions to the Iranians at some point in the future.

(It took less than 24 hours for the US president to go from declaring that a deal had been “extensively negotiated” to saying that the US would take its time negotiating a deal.)

This is a far cry from his demands of two months ago regarding the “unconditional surrender” of Iran.

This is an American president who just wants – in fact, needs – all of this to stop.

Amid the confusion of conflicting narratives about what is and isn’t in “the deal,” that’s all you really need to know about how events are unfolding.

Trump has confirmed through his own actions how little negotiating power he has and how much power now rests with Iran.

Israel undermines support by focusing on optics rather than actions

Following outcry over the treatment of detained activists, Israel has focused on messaging as its actions undermine support from the international community.

Trump’s announcement should also make clear that – despite its ups and downs – the United States will not resume military strikes against Iran.

Not only has the cost to the United States proved too high, and equally unlikely that any breakthrough will be possible, but the voices in Donald Trump’s ear are now those of the Gulf states, not Israel.

The Gulf states cannot afford further military conflicts – which primarily target them – and they need the Strait of Hormuz to open.

This is part of the fundamental shift in broader geopolitics triggered by this war.

It’s not just that the initial objectives of the US-Israeli attack on Iran were not achieved.

Israel and the United States have failed to achieve regime change or address the perceived Iranian nuclear threat.

Instead, they have changed the dynamics of the region in a way that will work in Iran’s favor, significantly reduce Israel’s power and security, and leave the United States humiliated.

Before the Iran war, Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to have secured Israeli strategic dominance in the region. (Reuters: Ilia Efimovich)

Over the weekend, analysts used terms like “strategic fiasco,” “catastrophe” and “true American debacle” to describe where things stand at the end of May 2026.

Israel has quickly gone from appearing to be the new hegemon in the region to a greater threat than it has been in years.

Iran – benefiting from the lifting of financial sanctions and the unfreezing of assets under the terms of this agreement – ​​would be able to rebuild the power of its proxies in Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq.

There is no mention of the need for Iran to abandon its support for its proxies in what has been published so far. Nor any constraints on its ballistic missile program.

Both developments would be considered existential threats to Israel.

Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote in The Atlantic a few days ago that the war in Iran “could end up as the most devastating blow to Israel’s security in its brief history.”

“On the current trajectory, Iran will emerge from the conflict far stronger and more influential than it was before the war,” he wrote.

“He will wield influence with dozens of the world’s richest countries, all of whom will have an acute interest in keeping Iran happy.

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“They are unlikely to side with Israel in a conflict with Tehran or its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza, because Iran will have the means to punish them if they do.

“Israel will emerge more isolated than at any time in its history – and particularly from its only reliable protector, the United States.

“When Trump turns his back on Israel, as he must to implement this policy, MAGA will happily follow him. The bipartisan anti-Israel consensus in the United States will grow and harden.”

The only option available to Donald Trump at this time is to minimize the appearance of the catastrophic strategic loss he and Israel suffered as a result of this war and maximize the appearance of a return to normal.

It will be difficult. The regime was not overthrown.

All indications are that his improved financial prospects and strategic power over the Strait of Hormuz demand that most of the world pay homage to him more than in the past.

The United States says the deal will return the Strait of Hormuz to a “normal” state. It won’t.

Iran emerged from the conflict with a strengthened negotiating position. (Reuters: Majid Asgaripour/WANA)

The Iranians continue to declare that they are now under their control. And both the military interventions and the negotiations carried out so far have shown that the Americans have no cards to play in this area.

What the path forward will now look like is an increasingly familiar model of American diplomacy that operates on the illusion that the wheel is always turning: like the Gaza ceasefire that has not moved beyond initial agreements and is not a ceasefire; like the ceasefire in Lebanon, which is not a ceasefire.

The results remain perpetually unresolved: something may be about to happen, but it usually does not happen.

The most likely scenario emerging at this point is not a clear solution – to the Strait of Hormuz, to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, or to the conflict in Gaza or Lebanon – in the near future.

Traffic could begin to flow more freely across the strait, but it will be on Iranian terms.

Trump says deal with Iran to end war ‘extensively negotiated’

US President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran that would open the Strait of Hormuz has been “extensively negotiated” and will soon be revealed, but Iran has sowed doubt about the scope of the deal.

Once again, these direct concessions – and Iran’s rejection of US statements on the Strait and nuclear energy – confirm that Iran is in charge.

What is also becoming clear is that instead of the results being primarily about the Gulf and uranium, they are now also about Israel and Lebanon.

In the past, the United States has successfully kept Israel out. But Israeli officials’ public reactions yesterday to news that a deal could be imminent only made clear how impossible such a deal would be for Netanyahu to accept.

This is why Israeli government spokespeople, including Netanyahu, have insisted that Lebanon is not part of the deal – hardly surprising given that the country continues its attacks on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, in blatant disregard of Trump’s claims that he has brokered a ceasefire.

Iran has made it clear that Lebanon must be part of the deal.

Even though Netanyahu was clearly not present in the room for these negotiations, it should be noted that neither were Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff or JD Vance.

The only significant player on the American side appears to have been Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The major players that have emerged in recent weeks – on which the United States appears increasingly dependent – ​​are Pakistan and now Qatar.

Trump’s consultations with Gulf and regional states like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey are taking place not only because these countries insist on being heard, but also because the US president is increasingly using them as a pretext to forgo further or renewed military actions. They give its negotiations greater credibility.

Along the way, however, it forced countries in the region to reevaluate their ties with each other – beyond the Shiite-Sunni divide – and orient themselves around Pakistan, itself a nuclear-armed state.

Laura Tingle is ABC’s global affairs editor.

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