Turkey enters political unknown after police raid…

Three days after the order, riot police forced their way into the party’s headquarters in Ankara, armed with pepper spray and batons, to depose CHP leader Ozgur Ozel, a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The court said Ozel’s election as party leader in 2023 was flawed and reinstated former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

In Türkiyethe elections are overseen by the Supreme Electoral Council, which certified Ozel’s victory, and its decisions are constitutionally final.

It’s just the latest move against the CHP, which scored a major victory over Erdogan’s ruling AKP in 2024 local elections and has since gained ground in the polls.

Party primary

Kilicdaroglu visited the party’s headquarters on Saturday to mark the last day of Eid, with a photo shared by his team on social media showing him sitting at his desk with a copy of the party’s statutes placed prominently in front of him.

“I will bring before you as soon as possible a ballot box for the party congress,” Kilicdaroglu said in a speech, without providing a specific date.

Ozel renewed his challenge to Kilicdaroglu to run in the party’s primaries, saying he was ready to run “with the delegates he wants.”

As the crowd chanted “The traitor Kemal!”, Ozel said the party congress must take place “immediately,” urging Kilicdaroglu to “organize a congress immediately, with delegates of your choice. Give the party an elected leader without delay. The CHP does not accept nominations.”

He also demanded primary elections, saying he would relinquish leadership of the party if he received less than 85 percent support.

Gonul Tol, Turkey expert and senior fellow at the US think tank Middle East Institute told RFI that Kilicdaroglu is “a convenient adversary for [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, because he “lost every major election during his 13 years as head of the party.”

“A broader campaign”

Ozel, 51, was elected leader at a party congress after Kilicdaroglu, 77, lost the 2023 presidential election. Ozel has revitalized the CHP, which now leads many opinion polls. Tol suggests Ozel’s removal is part of a broader campaign.

“This is the latest step in Erdogan’s broader campaign to weaken the opposition,” Tol said.

“Last March, in another unprecedented move, authorities jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoglu – he is Erdogan’s main political rival. And since then, the government has systematically targeted CHP mayors through prosecutions and corruption investigations,” she added.

Addressing protesters, Ozel vowed to flood streets and squares in defiance of what he calls a judicial coup, while appealing his impeachment.

Kilicdaroglu, meanwhile, promises to restore order in the party and cleanse it of “corrupting forces.”

The government insists on the independence of the judiciary and denies any political agenda.

Erdogan has remained silent on the issue. Yet some observers see the opposition upheaval as part of Erdogan’s broader vision for Turkey’s future.

Political commentator Sezin Oney from independent Turkish media exit Policy note that Erdogan is eager to shape the post-Erdogan era.

“He wants to plan the succession, most likely by having a close family member replace him. So he wants to shape the whole estate. [political] land accordingly.”

“Psyche of the opposition”

Erdogan has ruled Turkish politics for nearly 25 years, supported both by his statesmanship and a fragmented opposition.

But over the past year, Ozel’s energetic leadership has fueled more than 100 mass rallies across the country, even in Erdogan’s strongholds, as Ozel exploits growing public frustration over a crackdown on dissent and soaring food prices.

Ozel’s removal as CHP leader is seen as a pivotal moment for Turkish democracy.

“Turkey is moving closer to a Russian-style system, in which the leader decides who the opposition will be and ensures that no real surprises can emerge at the polls,” Tol predicts. “Why is Erdogan taking such a huge political and economic risk? Erdogan knows he can no longer win truly free and fair elections.”

Erdogan maintains close ties with the US president Donald Trump and the European Union Increasingly viewing Turkey as a security partner in the face of the looming Russian threat, international reaction has been muted to the latest move against the opposition.

Addressing tens of thousands of people at a rally in Izmir on Tuesday, Ozel vowed to step up protests. Rumors are circulating that he may launch a new party.

An opinion poll found that only 11 percent of respondents approved of Ozel’s removal. Yet the legal noose appears to be tightening, with reports suggesting his parliamentary immunity could be lifted and he could soon join other senior party members behind bars.

“We don’t have opposition in the form of political representation, but the people are there. The opposition psyche of the people is still there. So you absolutely cannot cancel the people or their political views,” Oney said.

“We don’t know what will come of this. We can make predictions, but this is something totally new and new in Turkey, and in Turkish history as well.”