Politics
Overview of Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea
What’s under the radar?
US-Korean diplomacy might not to be perpetually dormant. There may still be a way for President Trump to frame negotiations that would appeal to Kim, ease tensions in the relationship built over the past several years, avoid the thorny issue of denuclearization in the near term, and be portrayed as creating a diplomatic atmosphere that would allow for denuclearization negotiations in the future. This would provide the president with an opportunity to advance relations with Kim, claim progress in U.S.-North Korea relations unlike his predecessors, and support South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s desire to resume the U.S.-North Korea dialogue needed to revive inter-Korean relations.
Kim’s motivation to return to the table, however, remains low. Short-term economic inputs that help it slowly but gradually restore the civilian and military economies can be obtained through its relations with Russia. The increase in trade between North Korea and China suggests that this relationship can help bring North Korea out of its isolation and pressures in a way that would far exceed what Kim might hope to receive through South Korea or the United States.
The sustainability of improving relations between North Korea and Russia and strengthening relations between North Korea and China could influence how long Kim can continue to ignore Washington and Seoul. Aside from allegations of unacceptable tensions on the Korean Peninsula, there is little incentive for Washington or Seoul to return to the negotiating table or woo Kim with magnanimous preemptive concessions such as sanctions relief. Domestic political pressure in Seoul could motivate President Lee to seek a big victory with Pyongyang through concentrated engagement, but so far President Lee has demonstrated a mix of pragmatism and skepticism about the results of such a gamble. President Trump, meanwhile, faces numerous high-priority foreign and domestic policy challenges and has been pessimistic about reaching a deal with Kim.
Sydney Seiler is a senior advisor (nonresident) to the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC.
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not imply endorsement by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the intelligence community, or any other U.S. government agency.
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Sources 2/ https://www.csis.org/analysis/previewing-xi-jinpings-visit-north-korea-state-play The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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