Morning update: By-elections could bring down UK PM

Good morning. A tiny fraction of British voters cast ballots today in a by-election poised to determine Keir Starmer’s political fate – more on that below, plus Canada’s latest World Cup match and Alberta’s cost of living checks. But first:

Today’s headlines

Great Britain

Are you leaving, are you leaving, are you leaving?

He became British Prime Minister with a landslide victory, then his fortunes took a sharp turn – political scandals, public censure, defeated local elections, exodus of ministers. Ultimately, he succumbed to intense pressure from the party and agreed to step down. “As we saw at Westminster, the herd instinct is powerful,” Boris Johnson said outside 10 Downing Street four years ago. “And when the herd moves, it moves.”

The herd is definitely heading against Keir Starmer, the current British Prime Minister. Since leading Labor to a massive victory in the 2024 general election – a somewhat misleading triumph given he received just 33% of the vote – his premiership has completely collapsed. And now around 100 Labor backbenchers are calling for his resignation.

It’s not difficult to understand why. Among other controversies, Starmer made the calamitous decision to appoint Peter Mandelson, a long-time friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as British ambassador to the United States. Labor was badly beaten in last month’s local elections, losing more than 1,400 seats across the country, or around a quarter of their local representatives. Starmer is deeply unpopular – like, historically unpopular; the least popular MP recorded – and several of his ministers have resigned in recent weeks. US President Donald Trump also memorably described him as “not Winston Churchill”.

Starmer’s political fortunes have been made easier so far by the absence of a clear successor: one potential rival, former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, resigned over tax errors, while another, former health secretary Wes Streeting, is dogged by his own links to Mandelson. But all that could change later today, once voters cast their ballots in a by-election in the north of England. If Labor candidate Andy Burnham wins the small Makerfield constituency, he will most likely knock Starmer out as Prime Minister.

North exposure

Burnham is the 56-year-old mayor of neighboring Manchester, twice elected with at least 60 percent of the vote. He has won praise over the past nine years for the city’s rapid development and economic growth, as well as improving bus service after bringing it under public control. He also went viral for a fiery speech condemning Johnson’s conservative government. because of his lack of financial aid during strict Covid lockdowns. The British media took to calling him “the King in the North”.

But Burnham always had national ambitions. He rose through the ranks at Westminster, serving as a minister under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, then launched two unsuccessful bids for the Labor leadership in 2010 and 2015. And he has already made it clear that he intends to challenge Starmer for control of the party – in fact, that’s the only reason why Makerfield is holding a by-election today. Under Labor rules, any leadership candidate must be a Member of Parliament, which is why last month the sitting Labor MP for Makerfield resigned to clear the way for Burnham.

One battle after another

It won’t necessarily be fun. Burnham currently ranks as Britain’s most popular political figure, but Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party leads Labor in every national opinion poll. The far-right party has also made all sorts of inroads into the Makerfield constituency. In last month’s local elections, 25 councilors stood for election, including 22 from the Labor Party. Each lost, while the Reform Party won 24 of the seats.

Burnham’s main competitor, the Reform Party’s Robert Kenyon, has been slightly hampered by a resurfaced history of sexist and homophobic social media posts, although his anti-immigration rhetoric and promises to defend “our Christian heritage” appear to have been well received. Yet most pollsters expect Burnham to win today’s by-election – and then the next battle will begin, as Starmer continues to insist he has no intention of giving up his leadership. “I will fight,” he promised yesterday at the G7 summit. “I’m not going to go.”

He may not have much choice in the matter. The British economy is stagnating, its public finances are under strain and Labor MPs and their supporters have overwhelmingly indicated that they want a new leader. While Burnham has yet to come up with many comprehensive policy ideas to turn the country around, he does have one point in his favor: he is not Keir Starmer. That could be enough, says Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London.

“There’s something to be said for someone who can spice things up,” Bale told the Globe, “even if the sausage is essentially the same.”

The shooting

“We know exactly what we need now.”

At the last World Cup, only two countries out of 32 contenders lost all three matches: one was the host country, Qatar, and the other was Canada. The teams seek redemption in Vancouver at 6 p.m. ET today, and you can read more about their matchup here.

The wrap

What else do we follow

At home: Canada’s population declined again for a third consecutive quarter, driven by the federal government’s efforts to reduce the number of temporary residents.

Abroad: Luigi Mangione plans to use “extreme emotional disturbance” as defense in his trial for alleged murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.

Species: Premier Danielle Smith’s government will eliminate $100 checks for up to 3.4 million Alberta residents this summer, making the move a cost-of-living measure.

Submarines: A federal infrastructure plan for Canada’s future submarine fleet is sparking a battle in Halifax for a limited regional labor pool.

Movie: The huge success of three recent horror films suggests that the future of Hollywood may lie behind the scenes on YouTube.

Fines: Over the past six years, Quebec police have imposed more than 11,000 fines on citizens who insulted police officers.