Supreme Court immigration rulings could accelerate U.S. population declineExBulletin

President Trump holds up a bill funding immigration enforcement after signing it in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, June 10, 2026, in Washington. Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP .

switch captionJulia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

Even before the Supreme Court ruled Thursday that President Trump has broad powers to deport hundreds of thousands of migrants living legally in the United States under temporary protected status, David Bier feared the United States was sliding toward a demographic cliff.

“We’re destined to be there in no time, there’s no doubt about it,” Bier said. “We are already seeing a situation where most counties in the United States are experiencing more deaths than births.”

A population and immigration expert at the libertarian Cato Institute, Bier believes the United States is starting to look more like China, Italy and South Korea — countries facing rapid aging and population decline are seen as a crisis.

In the United States, the birth rate has been declining for decades. There are far too few children born each year to maintain a stable population.

Until last year, high rates of foreign immigration more than offset this trend. But for the first time since the 1930s, during the Great Depression, the United States now faces both record birth rates and low numbers of migrants.

“Our higher birth rates of a century ago will not return. There is no way to have a sustainable fiscal and economic situation without immigration,” Bier said.

Trump’s legal fight to end temporary protected status for hundreds of thousands of Haitians, Syrians and others living legally in the United States is just one part of a broader administration effort to reduce immigration.

The Supreme Court also ruled this week that the administration has the authority to block most asylum seekers from entering the country. Federal agents have also raided cities across the United States to speed up evictions.

Last month, Trump issued an executive order that could make it harder for many migrants living in the United States without full legal status to access banking and financial services.

Many opponents of immigration view these changes as progress. In a statement following this week’s Supreme Court rulings. A spokesperson for the Federation for Immigration Reform said Trump should have full authority to decide who enters the United States.

“Our immigration laws are written to be pro-enforcement, not anti-enforcement,” said Christopher Hajec of FAIR.

But according to Cato’s Bier, Trump’s policies are already reshaping community demographics, meaning there are fewer workers, consumers, taxpayers and children in schools.

“If you don’t allow immigration, you’re going to have [an aging and] a declining population and that creates all sorts of problems,” Bier said.

Economists say that without migrants, the number of young workers paying into social security will decline more quickly; schools in many regions will close their doors; and the number of young families with children will decline.

Census data already shows big changes in the U.S. population

The decline in immigration under Trump is dramatic. In 2024, approximately 2.7 million foreign migrants entered the United States, according to the Census Bureau. This year, census experts predict that number could fall to 300,000. Some demographers believe the United States could reach a point where more migrants are leaving than coming.

The impacts of this massive change on the American population as a whole are already being felt. Studies from the Census Bureau, the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve all point to a more rapid aging of the nation’s population under Trump.

Population growth in the United States fell by half in 2025 compared to the previous year, with five states losing population. Census data shows that the overall number of young Americans, under the age of 25, is already declining nationally.

William Frey, a demographer at the liberal-leaning Brookings Institution, called last week’s Supreme Court decisions “alarming.” He believes that without strong foreign immigration, more states will quickly see their populations stagnate or decline.

“Not just in big immigrant states, but in places that have relatively low numbers of immigrants, you know, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska — those states need immigrants to have any population growth,” Frey said.

Even before Trump’s policies curbed immigration, the U.S. population was expected to decline by the end of the century. Experts say low immigration rates will lead to a much faster downward trend.

According to Frey, the United States has time to reverse course. But he believes the Trump administration is committed to long-term reductions in legal and illegal immigration, a policy he called dangerous.

“It’s as clear as the nose on your face,” he said. “You have to have this growth in the younger population if you want to survive. Immigration is a key part of this.”

“America’s doors are closed”

Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff for policy, speaks with reports at the White House, Thursday, June 25, 2026, in Washington. Jacquelyn Martin/AP .

rock the caption Jacquelyn Martin/AP

The Trump administration sees things very differently, portraying foreign migrants not as people who support states’ populations and economies, but as a social burden and threat.

“America’s doors are completely closed to asylum seekers,” Stephen Miller, one of Trump’s top policy advisers at the White House, said Thursday.

Speaking to reporters, Miller described the Supreme Court’s rulings as a victory and said ending birthright citizenship for U.S.-born children of migrants was the next step.

“This country has no future if we don’t end birthright,” Miller said. The justices are expected to rule on birthright as early as next week.

This type of opposition to legal and illegal immigration is now widespread among conservatives, said David Bier of Cato, who worked as a Republican congressman on immigration policy.

He told NPR that when he talks to conservatives about the economic and demographic risks of closing the country’s doors to migrants, many respond with a cultural argument. “[They] would rather have a declining population of “real Americans” than have an economy kept afloat by people who don’t share [their] values,” Bier said.

But if extremely low or no immigration becomes the new normal in the United States, experts say it would quickly rebuild the national fabric. The Census Bureau estimates that without significant migration in coming years, the total population loss by the end of this century could exceed 107 million people.

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