The understanding between Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan shows that Israel must prepare for the Turkish threat

US President Donald Trump’s embrace of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is reminiscent of Trump’s transactional worldview, Erdogan’s ambitions and the need for Israel to take several steps forward.

The first: for Israel, the image of Trump walking arm in arm with Erdogan is just behind the image of US Vice President JD Vance leaning over a draft agreement with representatives of the Iranian ayatollah regime in the resort town of Bürgenstock near Lake Lucerne in Switzerland.

Israel faces remaining threats from Iran and an emerging threat from Turkey, including Erdogan’s serious rhetoric against Israel. In this context, the Trump-Erdogan embrace resembles a knife in the back of the nation, its leader and all those who hid their heads in the sand and failed to understand the person who sits in the White House today.

Trump, the businessman-president who arrived in Ankara against the backdrop of Qatar’s Air Force One fleet plane, is motivated by the economy, business and profits more than any grand commitment to democracy.

This week, he apparently began to understand that Iran is playing him. Iran has not abandoned its nuclear project and it will not abandon it. She feels like she is emerging victorious from the war. It allowed itself to attack targets and violate the ceasefire during the funeral procession of former supreme guide Ali Khamenei, without being deterred by an American response.

This portends a new escalation in the Middle East and a return to war in one form or another, against the wishes of Trump, who is trying to stabilize the economy and prepare for the US mid-term elections in difficult conditions.

But the main problem is ours. It is close to us, threatening us and demanding our attention. Take for example Iran’s show of force at the opening of Khamenei’s funeral procession. To a reasonable spectator abroad, it looked more like the opening ceremony of the Olympics than a funeral in a country whose military and political leadership had been largely eliminated and whose military, arms industries and economy had just suffered severe blows.

The Persian people have stiff necks. Our security challenge with them is far from over.

Erdogan’s ambitions in the Middle East

Second, Turkey is a very important country for Israel. It is a military and economic power located in a strategic position between the Middle East and Europe. It controls the Bosphorus Strait and borders countries that interest us a lot: Iran, Syria and Iraq.

I served in the Prime Minister’s Office, the Defense Minister’s Office, and the IDF General Staff during the “golden age” of relations between the two countries. As masses of Israelis flew on all-inclusive vacations to Antalya, Israel built a vast network of ties including intelligence, technological, military and economic cooperation.

On daily El Al and Turkish Airlines flights from Ben Gurion Airport to Istanbul, one could regularly encounter dozens of people from Israeli defense industries. Part of the Turkish army has been modernized by the Israeli defense industry. Joint military exercises were held in the air and at sea. At the Ministry of Defense, we visited Ankara several times and saw a rosy and promising future.

Then Erdogan arrived. He considers himself the “governor of Jerusalem” in exile and seeks hegemony in the Middle East as restorer of the Ottoman Empire.

He set out to reshape Turkey: he dismantled the constitutional legacy of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, imprisoned army commanders, political opponents and journalists, and transformed Turkey into a much more centralized and Islamist political project.

Now, after the fall of former Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime and the rise of an alternative leader beholden to him, Erdogan may seek to take control of Lebanon, strengthen ties with Iran alongside his plans with Trump, join forces with Qatar, and attempt to create a powerful new Middle East alliance under his leadership, perhaps even with the support of Russia and China.

In this regard, the presence of Egyptian and Saudi representatives at Khamenei’s funeral is a bad sign for us and for the United States. The relatively reassuring point is that Erdogan fears Israel’s strength above all, and he knows this better than many Israeli citizens.

This is a complex, dangerous and difficult geopolitical situation. It requires wisdom, responsibility and good judgment in every decision and statement. At all times, while preserving Israel’s core interests, Israeli leaders must take into account the realistic possibility of resuming relations with Turkey at some point. Just as the current upheaval has occurred, another upheaval could also occur.

In the meantime, Israel must preserve its relations with Egypt and Jordan, influence as much as possible any final agreement between the United States and Iran, if there is one, and try, with Washington, to expand the Abraham Accords, notably with Lebanon. It must also end, as much as possible, the campaign against Gaza, either militarily or through agreement.

For now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has placed the task of encouraging emigration from Gaza in the hands of Mossad Director Roman Gofman, in the hopes that he will succeed. I am an optimist with experience. Regardless, we are still very far from rest and inheritance in the life of a people.

Response to the Basic Law: Torah Study

Third: This week I encountered the appropriate Zionist response to the Basic Law: Torah study, the law prohibiting the arrest of Haredi draft dodgers, and all the terrible laws that harm the IDF and state security.

This answer is Brig.-Gen. A., 78 years old, former pilot of the Israeli Air Force, former commander of Air Force bases and senior captain of El Al. He has already completed 800 days of reserve service as a semi-trailer driver for one of the elite units.

He left his rank of brigadier general at home and joined the reserves with heart, soul and a deep commitment to the state, the Israeli army, his children and his grandchildren.

There are others like him and I salute them.

Brigadier General (Reserve) Avi Benayahu is a former IDF spokesperson.

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